Skip to comments.Battleground Tracking Poll: Dead heat (The potentially more important number is...)
Posted on 11/06/2012 5:19:38 AM PST by GLDNGUN
The potentially more important number is a combination nationally of those who have already voted and those who call themselves extremely likely to vote. Romney leads this group by three percent, 51 percent to 48 percent.
I think the more potent number is Romney leading indies by 15.....how the hell did they get a tie with Romney up 15 with inds.
It’s amazing to watch the MSM this morning.
Romney is (at worst) tied nationally, if not with a slight edge, and leading amongst Indies by double digits, enthusiasm, etc. Yet all I hear this morning is how Obama has the edge.
They are a joke.
I still say Romney, 52-47.
They are deluding themselves.
Up until this election, it was all about the independents.
“40% Rep, 40% dem, 20% independents” has been the rule of thumb, up until this election.
It just seems that all the indicators they’ve previously used have been thrown out because they don’t favor the “John the Baptist of the Anti-Christ”.
I read that Battleground poll. Essentially bad news all around on questions they couldn’t manipulate, like popularity, approval on the economy, etc. All came out bad for Obama.
But hey - he’s tied and gonna win! The only thing they could manipulate to get the answer they want is the turnout model.
I won’t watch MSM until it looks like a total Romney victory then DVR MSNBC
Buried deep is this tidbit - 50% of respondents voted Obama in 2008, 40% McCain.
I just returned from voting with my younger son. It was very crowded compared to my past experience (25 years) with that precinct. Still, the wait was under a half hour.
BTW, it’s raining and chilly in Atlanta this morning.
I few weeks ago I asked my FRiends a question to which I received no response. So, I’ll try again: What’s up with the report, largely buried in the press, that only nine percent of folks contacted by pollsters agree to participate in the poll? Seems to me that situation must result in an over-sampling of democrats. But, maybe a method exists to compensate for that low number. Thoughts?
You have to ignore the Tea Party affect and pretend the Blacks and Youts are going to save the day.
Pray for America
All the polls are in CYA mode. If they project a clear Romney win they fear being politically incorrect; if they project a clear Obama win but are wrong they lose credibility. Sure, there’s some data rigging going on because whoever’s funding a poll gets the results they want. Pic of Obama yesterday remind of Carter in 80 on Monday -tired, flat, crying. Probably Obama’s internal polls told him days ago that it’s over.
That has been Iowahawk's message all season. All polls are garbage because of low response rate. I think the "method" you mention to compensate is the special sauce each pollster puts in their poll. Ironically, it seems the most irrelevant piece of information in a poll is the question: "Who are you voting for?"