To: trappedincanuckistan
Bingo! It’s clear that Silver understands numbers, but his underlying assumptions are subjective and shifting. The first red flag is the fact that he assigns a probability of victory. No pollster does that because that isn’t what pollsters do.
10 posted on
11/05/2012 9:43:24 AM PST by
RIRed
To: RIRed
No pollster does that because that isnt what pollsters do.
Silver isn't a pollster, he is an oddsmaker. Basically a political bookie. But i think you are right, he sees the numbers but not the influences of them. A bit of not being able to see the forest through all the trees...
13 posted on
11/05/2012 9:49:54 AM PST by
HenryArmitage
(it was not meant that we should voyage far.)
To: RIRed
The first red flag is the fact that he assigns a probability of victory. No pollster does that because that isnt what pollsters do.I agree. It's such a cop-out on his part.
When Romney wins, critics can't enumerate exactly how much Silver was wrong by. They can't say "he missed the mark by 14 percentage points or 110 electoral votes."
With his lame method of prediction, he'll just say, "Well, I did say there was a 14% chance Romney would win, so I wasn't wrong."
He's a gutless little ferret.
24 posted on
11/05/2012 10:13:39 AM PST by
dead
(It ain't over until the phone lady sings.)
To: RIRed
42 posted on
11/05/2012 11:29:02 AM PST by
re_nortex
(DP...that's what I like about Texas.)
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