What an insane poll...tied and D+ double digits. Wow if true.
That said, here is a link to an interesting article from 2004 arguing why the polls were wrong and Kerry would win from some Dem.
It uses many of the same arguments we use today, so let’s not ASSUME we are winning and polls are wrong, even if oversampled. It could be that Dem turnout will be higher than we think.
I think in this case, oversampling etc. WILL mean we are going to win. But, don’t get too overconfident. Even good-sounding statistics can be wrong.
http://www.politicalstrategy.org/archives/000580.php
Based on this poll though, I would not be surprised if we do pull off a big upset.
Right now I predict a R win of 2 points, but I hope it’s five or even more.
I'm only interested in polls that come with an ironclad guarantee of perpetual satisfaction.