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I have a monetary bet out there that Romney is going to win. If I had the chance to cancel that bet today I wouldn’t do it. I’m not ready to concede yet just because the polls are tightening. I still feel we’re going to see a “Tea Party” effect on turnout like we saw in 2010 and with the Scott Walker recall.

Also, someone posted a comparison of polls and election results for the last couple presidential elections, and it appears Republicans usually do 1-3 points better on election day than they do in the polls.

The big worry is that Obama ekes out an electoral college win, which seems more possible now than ever, because marketing in general has gotten better and better at micro-targeting just the right people they want to. I also think Obama has been more brazen at targetting the electoral college solely, vs. the popular vote, because unlike most past Presidents he knows what he wants to do isn’t popular and he has no desire to do what the majority of the country wants to do if he can get around them. His goal is to punish Americans for their success. And I think that someone with that mindset could make more effective use of their money by bombarding just the few swing states they need to win.

I continue to be flummoxed by Romney’s campaign and why he is supposed to be campaigning in Pennsylvania on Sunday. With an election this close it doesn’t make sense to target states that are more difficult to win than at least 8 others and which are not necessary to win.