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How did Twinkle Toes do with the Walker recall a few months ago?

He did fine, actually. Started off as too close to call about a year out then was mostly "Walker likely to survive" for the rest of the time.

But it was a no-brainer; Walker's approval rating was never underwater. That alone would make him a likely winner, but even then some of the "disapproves" were going to vote for Walker because, regardless of their disapproval, they didn't believe a full-on recall election was justified. When viewed in that way, Silver's performance looks a bit worse, as he should have gone all the way to saying Walker was an almost-certain winner.

Given how straight-forward that race really was (as outlined above), I don't think his performance there reflects positively on his predictions for the presidential race.