Every time I see one of these I search for the word “independent”, and I never see it, whether from Silver or anyone else. How does Obama win if he’s losing 7+% of independents? Even the polls showing Obama ahead show him losing among independents. No incumbent has won without getting at least close to 50% among independents. Why should this time be different? Why aren’t independents at least considered?
How does Obama win Ohio if he loses Independents by 7%? Is Dem turnout really going to be so much better than GOP turnout that it can overcome that?
If Gallup is correct, and Romney is winning by 4%, with a couple of undecideds still to decide, presumably for Romney, how does Obama win?
I suppose it’s possible Obama will win, but it doesn’t seem likely; he’s certainly not a “favorite.” His winning would be a perfect storm.
“I wonder why there’s a discrepancy between the yard signs and the bumper stickers?”
People don’t want their cars keyed, or to be subject to road rage.
It’s real out there.