Posted on 10/27/2012 10:41:06 AM PDT by MeanGreen2008
Gallup came out yesterday and said the party id this year will be R+1. So any national poll with a D+7 sample is not even close to credible.
Furthermore, the TIPP polling firm is sampling about 130 people per day in the rolling average. If you know anything about polling, that is a joke for a national pol - and should be a MOE of about 6%.
Agree.
Ive been dropping into the DUmp lately and their delusion is boundless gonna have to hide the sharp objects over there come nov 6th
Yep, Romney has a s—tload of ground to make up among Democrats. The world wonders....does he have time???
Yep, Romney has a s—tload of ground to make up among Democrats. The world wonders....does he have time???
In addition to other issues, their sample is skewed towards those who voted for Obama in 2008. If you put the actual final totals, then you find that the numbers are 0 - 45.7; R - 46.7
I am sure there are other issues as well - particularly in the breakdown between minorities and white sample.
It doesn't mean that Romney should start coasting (nor am I suggesting that he is), but yeah, if I was Barry I'd be reaching for the antacids about now.
If they applied undecideds evenly between Obama and Romney and then used the weighting in the following elections you get:
Now* - Obama: 46.70%, Romney: 51.17% (R +4.47%)
2010 - Obama: 46.71%, Romney: 50.51% (R +3.80%)
2008 - Obama: 49.53%, Romney: 47.62% (O +1.89%)
2004 - Obama: 46.54%, Romney: 50.54% (R +4.00%)
If you give Romney 60% of the undecideds (very possible IMO), the numbers become:
Now* - Obama: 45.99%, Romney: 50.89% (R +4.90%)
2010 - Obama: 46.00%, Romney: 51.23% (R +5.23%)
2008 - Obama: 48.82%, Romney: 48.34% (O +0.48%)
2004 - Obama: 45.83%, Romney: 51.26% (R +5.53%)
* This is based upon an extrapolated average of the consolidated RCP congressional preference or 34% DEM, 33% GOP, 33% IND.
Bad day for Barry.
Yeah. A week [give or take] before the election, an incumbent who can't break 50 is probably toast. I'm not getting cocky, though.
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