Expectations are the problem. First debate, everyone expected Obama to trounce Romney thus the upset.
This time, everyone’s looking for Romney to be brilliant and Obama still high. Not sure how it’s going to play but I think expectations are against Romney this time.
I think a key component of the “upset” were the facts and the record. The facts and the record haven’t changed in Obama’s favor. You could make the case, with further revelations regarding the Libyan disaster, things are even worse for Obama than they were. It’s a fairly easy case for Romney to prosecute.
I don't think Romney has to be brilliant- just capable.
The left tried to define him as some ruthless business man who cared nothing about people in the lower classes. But he didn't really look like a genius in that first debate, just a thoughtful and engaged guy.
All he has to do is come across as someone who is listening and has a good grasp of the issues, and who can communicate effectively.
Those Town Hall questions are almost always softballs, so swinging for the fences usually doesn't work very well. Romney just has to be positive and he'll hold his own.