Posted on 09/29/2012 8:21:34 PM PDT by smoothsailing
See Red Steel’s post #14. It helped me understand a little better what Ras is doing.
Pollster seem not to be able to account or are poor at accounting for voter apathy or voter enthusiasm.
Rant after Nov 6th.
I wear a kilt...not a skirt.
Exactly! Sheesh, who needs the media to depress Republicans when we'll do it ourselves?
The reality is that turnout after 1980 has ALWAYS ranged from even to D+4, except for 2008. There is some evidence that this could be an usual outlier year where Rs outnumber Ds, but that WILL be an outlier.
We also know that the polls USUALLY shift towards the challenger down the final stretch. We also know that those who are say they are undecided down the final stretch USUALLY break 2:1 for the challenger. We know that Romney is adopting a late "daisy cutter" strategy designed to maximize those effects. With the Ras interview, we also now know that there is room for a more Republican electorate than Ras predicts RIGHT NOW without being unusual.
Long story short, Scott Rasmussen is a pollster, not a cheerleader. However, what he has to say is pretty good news for Romney. It makes no sense to pile on him because he doesn't draw a conclusion that MIGHT be true but for which there is no evidence to indicate WILL be true. Republican turnout has never exceeded Dem, so he can't say that any data he has indicate it will this time.
I have no doubts.
(”Then they rationalize it. You rationalize things to fit what you want the world to be.)
Actually, that’s a pretty description of what the pollsters are doing, not Republican voters!
Rasmussen kept using a D+2 assumption even after its August polls showed likely voters to be R+4, probably just to play it safe, since D+2 is closer to the historical norm (it was D+3 or so in 2000, even in 2004, and D+7 in 2008). It is possible that his September party-ID numbers (which he will release this coming week) will not be as Republican, since the RNC was in August and the DNC was in September. If the electorate on Election Day ends up being D+2 or less, Romney will probably win; if it’s D+3, it will be very close, à la 2000, and it could go either way; and if it’s D+4 or more, Obama will likely win.
What is clear is that the electorate will not be D+7 this year, much less the D+8 through D+12 that some ridiculous pollsters have been using.
2008: D+7
2004: Even
2000: D+4
I’m hoping the final for 2012 is D+2 or less. That should be enough to win with a comfortable cushion and stave off challenges and dirty tricks.
I’m with you on the enthusiasm level, it’s seems huge for ABO. What I’m not sure of is the enthusiasm for Romney, I’m just hoping folks see him as the only choice.
There may be a 2-4% advantage for Dem voting in Nov. but 3% more Dems will vote for Romney than Republicans for Obama.
“So wait...Rasmussen, the most GOP friendly pollster out there, is also wrong?”
College football’s `Bowl Championship Series’ also has scientific credentials using research methodology recognized by political polling organizations.
Not surprisingly the Associated Pimps’ are also involved in both venues, providing their non-biased, impartial input. The BCS is a large pile of bovine excrement.
Saying, “They can’t all be wrong” begs the question. Assuming he isn’t found in bed with a live boy or dead girl, Romney wins hands down, tomorrow and in five weeks.
Don’t buy the BS. They’re all wrong.
When the dust settles we get to kiss fat sister Sue, rather than Aunt Doris with the running lip chancre. Yippee.
Did you read in my post that indies would break for Obama? NO! Actually I agree with your points in your post.
Yet, we get these stories only minutes before.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2938165/posts
Sounds like Scott is pulling a number out of his ear. Why is he sure that the Repubs won’t show up?
Pray for America
I'd put it higher than 3%, maybe 5-6%. Check out the chart in post #7, 15% of white male Dems for Romney!
Very impressive details. Looking inside at the Extended data, this is 88% solid or lean Romney for GOP voters vs. 85% solid or lean Obama for Democrats.
Romney is on more solid ground right now by far. The world is falling apart around Obama, whether the media reports it or not. I don’t see an upside for him. The race is Romney’s to win or lose.
It will be the independents who break for Romney, who will decide the election.
Romney simply cannot generate the necessary level of enthusiasm to win.
I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't believe that Romney has it in him to unseat the incumbent.
How did we win any election in the last 20 years if the Democrats were always outvoting us?
Something wrong with the Gender numbers. He is showing Romney down to Obama among men and up over Obama among women... He either made a mistake in the posting of the data i.e. reversed the results or the men who answered the poll were much less Whites than their actual numbers in the population...
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