Based on what I'm seeing, there is no way in hell Obama wins Hamilton county this time, and I (as of now) don't think he'll even win Franklin Co. Without these two, he's toast. His numbers are already off, net after subtracting Republican decline, 8% in Cayahoga. But GOP numbers everywhere else are up, not only in absolute numbers over the Dems but in % increases.
So we have Ras who says it's a tie; Gallup that has a +5 Dem sample to get a 1-2 point Obama lead, and a slew of polls showing Dem turnout at +9 in OH. Wow. And Stephen Hayes is an expert on OH?
Sounds reassuring. I am working on getting out the vote here in VA. One thing that we are telling folks is that they should early vote rather than send in absentee ballots, which can be invalidated for various technical reasons.
In Ohio in person early balloting starts on Oct 2. Is the GOP pushing early voting in Ohio? Is it easy to do? This is usually where the Dems pile up their votes and margin of victory. Someone mentioned to me that McCain actually won more votes on election day than Obama. It is estimated that 40% of the votes will be cast prior to election day.
Early voting calendar, 2012