In 2010, Republicans took back five congressional seats from Democrats, elected a Republican Governor, and elected a strong conservative U.S. Senator, Pat Toomey. The PA General Assembly is GOP controlled. Republicans hold a 30-20 majority in the Senate, and a 112-90 majority in the House.
So PA is not like Illinois - not by a long shot. But in presidential years, the urban voters get really revved up and overcome the suburban and rural voters. Bush lost PA by only 4 pts. in 2004.
If Obama weren’t half black, it would be a lot closer.
Toomey won by a tiny margin, 1 or 2 points. That race is probably the best template for Obama/Romney this year, since it was a federal position. 2010 was an off-year election where Tea Party activity surely gave the Republicans an extra 5-10 points. That margin of victory will be pulled down in a presidential year where turnout of the politically ignorant will go way up. If he had to run his race again, Toomey would lose in 2012 by more points than he won in 2010.
Thank you. So many idiots posting here who know nothing about PA. This isn’t Kali, or even Illinois.
Maybe then the tactic should be to deflate the enthusiasm of the the urban voters through some serious ads that discourages them.