Various polls show Romney getting roughly 20% of the democratic vote.. Independents will break easily in the range of 2-1 for Romney... The very idea this is a “close” election is pure propoganda folks.
Lets just say for a minute, that the 20% is only white democrats, as mentioned in this poll (its not, its about 20% of overall democrats, but lets just keep it to that level for now)... White Democrats are the SINGLE LARGERST BLOC OF DEMOCRATIC VOTERS, period. You can’t lose 20% of them, and think everything’s okay. The overal breakdown is about 30-30-40 R, D, I.. now these numbers vary somewhat between elections, but that’s the general breakdown... Currently WHITES make up 63% of registered democrats!
So, losing 20% of them, based on a 30% number of the overall population is about 12% of the democratic voting! Now that means OVER 10% of your overall BASE has no intention of voting for your candidate!! 10%!!! That’s insurmountable folkd. 10% of your registered party members (if you just keep it to just 20% of whites) aren’t going to vote for you, and you are losing independents by 15% or more in most polls!!! yet these same polls are trying to tell you the election is close??? Its not mathematically possible folks!!! The ONLY way you get there is by oversampling democrats.. that’s the ONLY way you can get your overall poll to show a Sitting Politician who if they lst just 3% of their vote total from their previous election would LOSE this election, could be down 7% of the overall voting population! (12% of the Democratic vote = 3.6% of overall vote, and losing the independent vote by 14 points means that 40% independent voter you are only going to get 43% of 40% of the overall vote, is a 7% deficit to EVEN, in a group you WON last time, that 7% deficite, to even, let alone the deficit to where you were last time since you won independents by more than 50% is another 2.8% ov the overall vote. So, even with this polls very generous internals to Obama, the math tells you, he’s down over 6 points from 2008 at LEAST (6.4% to be exact), and that makes his overall number using 2008 as your baseline Obama will only get 46.5% of the vote.
Now if you extrapolate that 20% to the entire democratic voting base, and not just white, he’s not down 3.6% of overall vote, he’s down 6% of the overall vote, 6% + 2.8% = 8.8%! An 8.8% from 2008 makes Obama’s vote total expectation 44.1%.. Now when you factor in the deltas in enthusiam and turnout, and the fact that Obama’s will likely lose independents by far more than 14 points, Obama is down to 42-43% AT BEST for this election.
Honestly, I truly believe this fool will be lucky to see 40% on election day. It will be very interesting to see what the 3 day rollings say next thursday, when that weeks 3 day will not have weekend numbers, now that Obama’s foreign policy failures are undeniably front and center.
I fully expect Obama to lose the independent vote in the 5-2 to 2-1 range.
Good analysis Hamilton but national popularity polls are meaningless. We need to look at swing states polls, if we are to believe them, in the which I think all of them have at least Romney ahead, in a dead heat or just out of the MFE. I am ignoring these polls for right now till the last week in October. They will vacillate back and forth, pollsters have to sell soap just like the rest of us will use that special sauce whenever necessary to create the illusion of a horse race. I can say the libs are acting like we did in 2008, grasping and hoping above hope for some pools to buoy their confidence. The swagger is gone , sweating from Axelrod down, gone is the aire of inevitability. The cocksure attitude of their smirking , smarmy, Trader Joes shopping, metrosexual Volkssturm has evaporated. Look at their convention, the lunacy there, and the shrillness of their shills in the media. Will Obama Democrats vote for Romney, probably not, but will they stay home like they did in 2010, I think they will. That will be the difference, I think even the most partisan liberal pundits are getting cold sweats because they know they could at best be looking at a close loss and at worst a total blowout with a loss of the Senate also.