General Election: Romney vs. Obama (Rasmussen: Obama 49 Romney 45)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 9/9/2012 | Rasmussen reports

[Road Glide]

“Romney is not reason and this country is vastly different than 1980”

Absolutely right.

And what’s disheartening is that the demographic trends and direction in which the country is headed, are not changing. They may be accelerating.

Texas will “tip to the left” within twenty years, as New Mexico has within the last two decades. What then?

Conservatives (and to a lesser extent, Republicans) had better start thinking about the “years to come” and develop a long-term strategy for preserving at least -some- of their influence for a nation which will continue to fall to the left in the decades ahead.

[mylife]

If Obama wins, he will go scorched earth on us.

[Sooth2222]

1. Obama was spending more money on TV ads than he was taking in. Romney was raking in more money, but spending ... nada on TV ads.

2. So Zero was about 4 or 5 points ahead of Romney during the last week of August, prior to Romney's post-convention bounce.

3. Following the Republican convention bounce, and following Clint Eastwood's ummmm, "controversial" conversation with an empty chair, Romney was about 4 or 5 points ahead of Zero last Sunday.

4. Romney started spending on TV ads the day after the Democrat convention ended, last Friday.

5. Following the Democrat convention bounce, and following a horrible convention speech, Obama is 4 points ahead of Romney today.

6. Today, it's TEOTWAWKI.

Do I have the time line (more or less) correct?

[Road Glide]

“Rasmussen’s generally accurate, though — it’s gonna be a nail-biter, I have it 272 EV for Romney.”

I was thinking he might get 270.
Which battleground states do you see him winning/losing?

[KevinDavis]

Also I’m seeing a lot people who is posting that I haven’t seen before..

[nhwingut]

Here’s some hope...

Tweeted from @TheRickWilson (GOP media guy).

Why the Media Predict-o-Herd is wrong

9. Romney won the primary by a willingness to cut throats, and by surprisingly strong debate kills. Gee…

8. The same “Democrat victory is inevitable” stories from every cycle except 84 are an echo of the era of Gang of 500 agenda power.

7b. From the HHS mandate to the DNC’s “Abortion Is The Awesome!” night to Dems booing God, to Israel, Team O is either tone deaf or hostile

7. Media folks largely don’t get the deep rupture Obama has caused w people of faith, because they live in very secular world.

6. In 2008 by this time McCain campaign was broke, largely off the air in key states and rudderless. Opposite now true.

5a. Run that model with 08 numbers and Romney wins FL, even w/o any other externalities.)

5. Registration numbers in key states ain’t pretty for Obama: in 2008 Dems had a 670k reg adv in Fl and he barrrely won. Now? Only 440k.

4. After 200 million against Romney and a thousand hits by press stenographers running Chicago’s hits, Romney is alive…and inoculated.

3. No one wants to admit the 2008 Reverse Bradley Effect w suburban voters from 2008, but it’s gone now, and they know it.

2. They’re not sensitive to the economy, but voters are. Parse it all ya want, but voters think the economy is in the dumper.

1.They ignore the coming ad blitz and cash advantage Romney holds.

[svcw]

Don’t know if its the end, I think your time line is correct - simple and to the point.

[GlockThe Vote]

Look - i think Ras and Gallup are the two best.

What I am concerned w is Romney’s campaign.

No yard signs, no stickers, no real excitement, nothing bold, nothing really agressive, zero passion, etc.

Obama is the most destructive, lethal, corrupt, disastrous, horrible person i have EVER witnessed in public office and should not even be running for re-election yet be within margin or error to win this.

[svcw]

So what are Romney’s ads going to say?

I like parts of obamacare
I think the rich aren’t paying their fair share
I think abortion is ok under most circumstances

Every time he opens his mouth he loses more conservative votes.

[Sudetenland]

That is the most important question asked on this thread and I am astounded that it required 50 responses before it was asked.

I won't even pay attention to a poll if I can't see the demographic breakdown. Rassmussen doesn't reveal his internal details unless you subscibe--which I decline to do.

I'm betting that Dems were over polled about 5-7%. That seems to be the going rate these days.

[Bobloblaw2012]

“”Look at Clinton-Gore-Kerry-Obama””
Notice how each is progressively more leftist. I shudder to think of what that Dems will nominate in 10 years.

[adorno]

Darlin’ that is what ROMNEY IS SUPPOSE TO DO! He’s suppose to be the one making a big deal over the jobs report Friday. Over and over at every stop and in front of every camera.

Wont work, for the same reasons I explained above, and which I'll repeat:

Unfortunately, most people aren't paying attention to the jobs reports, and most of those who do pay attention, don't understand them. Unemployment, to most people, is a problem only to those who are not employed. The people who are dependent on government for most or a lot of their support, won't budge from their support for democrats and Obama.

--------------------------------------------------------- Unfortunately for Romney, people aren't interested on having unemployment numbers explained to them, and the only people who might care, are those that need jobs and can't find them, and those who are employed and might become unemployed; but, most people don't follow politics and don't follow the issue, and, far too many people are dependent on government services to the point that, unemployment doesn't affect them.

[MRadtke]

I'm curious how a pole like this breaks down state by state, EV totals.

For example, lets say California (and all of its EV) goes for Obama. It doesn't matter if the vote was 50.1-49.9 or 60-40, the winner gets all of the EV. So can a margin of a few points in a national poll mask a different EV result?

[mypalsnail]

Have you seen the ads? Painfully soft and ineffective. Worst “shock and awe” I’ve ever seen.

[mypalsnail]

It was the Clinton speech that turned the tide, imo. It was even getting praise from a sports talk radio station here in WI. Outside of Eastwood, the GOP had nobody give a good speech.

[svcw]

So what are Romney’s ads going to say?

I like parts of obamacare
I think the rich aren’t paying their fair share
I think abortion is ok under most circumstances
I think homosexual adoption is a-ok
I think man made global warming is happening
I think it’s ok to grab guns
I think .........

Every time he opens his mouth he loses more conservative votes.

[KevinDavis]

mypalsnail signup date: 08/08/2012

[nhwingut]

Every time he opens his mouth he loses more conservative votes.

I think that's the risk with his strategy. If going after the middle (soft '08 Obama voter) does he lose as many conservative voters - for a net net swing.

The thinking with Team Romney is that Obama is so despised by the base that he can say anything (up to Obama deserves a 2nd term) and still turn out the base. It is risky. BUt that's the plan, I believe. I don't think you will see any bomb throwing (from Romney) even after falling behind this late in the game. But I think you will see some harsher/contrasting ads from 3rd parties and PACs.

[GlockThe Vote]

And all Romney had to say was that Obama is no clinton, never was a clinton, and CANT WORK WITH ANYBODY.

Romney SUCKS!!!!

His team are a joke. Here is what he needs to explain over and over and over and over

Obama w Demo Congress - Cap n Trade, ObamaCare, KSM trial in NYC, Stim Bill

Obama w GOP Congress - debt downgrade, no budget, executive orders, incompetence.

How Romney made it in the private equity so high is beyond me with how much of a p%$^^y he is.

[Moorings]

Romney won the primary by a willingness to cut throats

After the primaries, I have not seen any of that "willingness". Suprisingly, the unscripted lines of Clint Eastwood, a mushy moderate, has been some of the most hard hitting and exciting lines that I have seen so far.

They ignore the coming ad blitz

That ads I have seen so far are not very hard hitting and pretty much vanilla. Where is the fire? You can have all the cash advantage possible, but if there is no fire voters are not going to see the difference between the candidates.