Posted on 09/08/2012 1:03:40 PM PDT by nhwingut
For a long time I have been predicting that Mitt Romney would get the Republican nomination, and that he would then win the general election. I have said that the election will be reasonably close–demographic realities dictate that all national elections will be reasonably close, for the foreseeable future–but not a squeaker; more like 2004 than 2000. Given President Obama’s dismal record, that seemed like a safe prediction.
But it now appears that the election will be very close after all, and that Obama might even win it. It will require a few more days to assess the effects (if any) of the parties’ two conventions, but for now it looks as though the Democrats emerged with at least a draw, despite a convention that was in some ways a fiasco. In today’s Rasmussen survey, Obama has regained a two point lead over Romney, 46%-44%. Scott Rasmussen writes:
The president is enjoying a convention bounce that has been evident in the last two nights of tracking data. He led by two just before the Republican convention, so he has already erased the modest bounce Romney received from his party’s celebration in Tampa. Perhaps more significantly, Democratic interest in the campaign has soared. For the first time, those in the president’s party are following the campaign as closely as GOP voters.
So the Democrats’ red meat, over-the-top attacks on Republicans apparently worked at least as well as the Republicans’ more positive, low-key approach.
On paper, given Obama’s record, this election should be a cakewalk for the Republicans. Why isn’t it? I am afraid the answer may be that the country is closer to the point of no return than most of us believed.
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
It’s not Obama that poses the danger to our very survival, but the American voter.
Even if Romney were elected president this year, America will commit suicide some time in the future.
If these groups would vote anywhere near a 50/50 split, it would be over for the Dems.
It's an odd puzzle. Many align ideologically with conservatism but don't vote that way.
“WHY IS THIS ELECTION CLOSE?”
The election is close because the nation is “dividing” into two fundamentally irreconcilable camps.
Something akin to watching a cell dividing under a microscope. The division is not yet complete — but the two factions can be clearly seen as they pull further apart, leaving only a slender strand of “connecting tissue” between them.
That connecting tissue may not hold much longer. The two sides have moved so “far apart” that there can be no common ground between them any more — only rancor and conflict.
There remains “a middle”, but as either side entrenches, more of those in the middle drift towards either side.
Eventually one of two things will happen:
- One side will assimilate the other. This is what the left wants — to bring the right to bear under its grasp, by force if necessary. The right, on the other hand wishes to go its own way and be left alone — but the left can never permit this to happen without using the full force of governmental power to prevent it.
- The two sides will break fully apart. This may become the right’s only hope of preserving its heritage and independence from the ever-growing federal/socialist/authoritarian state (and before you tell me America isn’t growing more authoritarian, check the article on FR today about the F.B.I.’s plans to implement facial recognition throughout the country). We could see a “Commonwealth of Independent North American States, a la the C.I.S. created from the breakup of the Soviet Union.
It’s not a mystery why an Obama can arise and, in spite of his obviously anti-American beliefs still retain the support of so many in this country. Those who support him have little in common with those who see through him.
The country is entering a state of “Cold Civil War”.
I have just returned home after a day of canvassing the vote for Romney here on the I-4 Corridor of Fl. Romney’s campaign volunteers are working their butts off to get the vote out. Romney has dumped money into every important county that will make a difference. I was calling on nothing but Republicans to see if they were going to vote and vote Romney. Half the houses had no one home. 1/4 of the houses had people that moved or turned into rental property instead of primary residence of the Registared Voter. Now that leaves the last 1/4th. These folks were Passionate that they will go to polls with wings on! I was asking if they wanted an absentee ballot, and most told me that they wanted to go to the polls and they were excited. I had one guy show that he always was a democrate(voters card) but he will never vote democrate again.
I can’t tell you it is not close, because right now it is. What I will tell you is everyone must convince 1 person to vote against Obama. We have to work harder and smarter. Yes the ads need to be hard hitting, but people make a huge difference in this election too! Help us turn out the vote for I believe if we can get 5 points up on Obama, the voter fraud and games will not matter.
Get to work. Now I’m going to take a nap!
I do not believe it is as close as the MSM is saying. I believe the polls are rigged. I believe part of the whole "Bolshevik" ("Majority Party") meme is to convince the country that he can even come close to winning, when in fact, he is a dismal failure in every regard.
Also, it will set up Liberal claims of vote fraud. Remember the exit polls in 2004.
Well, there’s a simple reason: a large percentage of the voters are morons. Forty years ago a candidate similar to Obama, George McGovern, got annihilated in the prez election. And this was when the Vietnam war was still going on. Because the voters saw that McGovern was way too far left. And he was a decorated WWII vet to boot. Now we have someone as or more radical, and he still stands a good chance of getting elected even though he’s trying to destroy the foundation of America. Only bone ignorance and outright stupidity can explain why Obama stands a chance.
Do you ever complain about 0bama or just Republicans?
You are absolutely correct. Romney is only saying he can run the welfare state better than Obama. He's got to tell the voters why Obama is a failure. He has to utter the forbidden (to elite, snobby Republicans) words "leftist" and "socialist." But he won't do it. One consolation: if Romney loses despite running against the worst president in history, we'll never have to tolerate another moderate Pubbie again. If there's a country left after another four years of Obama.
Going through Berkeley (CA) today (of all places) I was hard pressed to find any BO bumper stickers. There were NO yard signs or window signs there at all. The biggest thing going on there today (besides the Cal vs. Southern Utah pre-season game) was some sort of walkathon for breast cancer. You'd hardly know that a presidential election was just two months away.
Going along through Martin Luther King Jr. Way (West Oakland): no yard signs, no bumper stickers, only one "BO 2012" sign in the window of an old house. No BO t-shirts or buttons spotted.
Fixed.
Not true about 1988. Bush was ahead by at least 6 a week before. Bush struggled in September but found his groove in October.
The election should not end up close, but we can thank the press for creating a false positive image for the Democrats and for demonetizing the conservatives and Republicans.
IMO we need to make the press a target in the future regarding change.
In the end, I think Obama will be lucky to get 47%.
“Until Republicans can figure out how to wrestle the conservative Blacks, Hispanics and Jews away from the Dems”
The 5-10% that exist do vote GOP.
The black vote is monolithic, to be sure.
The white commie/idiot vote, likewise.
The Hispanic vote, however, is anything but. Cuban-Americans in Florida aren't Tex-Mex. And Tex-Mex aren't Spanish-Americans. And legal Hispanics aren't at all like illegal Hispanics.
At best, Democrats have a lock on 60% of the Hispanic vote.
Which converts your table to:
12.5% black
9% Hispanic
20% White commmie/idiot (which includes my sis, the social worker)
There are no undecideds, the dead are being purged, photo ID being demanded.
Why do you think zero gave that go nowhere nothing speech?
It's all over.
This election, if it happens, may well be stolen. These poll numbers are just a way to camouflage what might be a very suspicious vote tally.
Voter fraud, plain and simple
You got that right.
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