There's no question of guerrilla warfare or collateral damage from a naval war. The side with better range and firepower wins. For the next decade at least, that side is Uncle Sam, although the Chinese are closing fast, due to their massive investments in military R&D.
The fact the Chinese supply lines will be far, far shorter puts them at a distinct advantage. They can put a lot of force into their region on short notice.
The other wildcard... they Chinese have observed that the American public will only support a war so long before they start getting antsy. China's leaders have no such worry.
So, it comes down to unconventional weaponry. The problem is, we're ruled by someone who despises their very presence and has vowed not to use them.