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CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac swing-state polls show Obama hitting 50% (Massive oversampling of Democrats)
Hot Air ^ | AUGUST 1, 2012 | ED MORRISSEY

Posted on 08/01/2012 7:06:55 AM PDT by Qbert

I’ve got good news and bad news for Hot Air readers today. First, the good news: After a few years of embarrassing sample skew problems in the CBS/NYT polls, the two media outlets have partnered with Quinnipiac, at least for this week’s look at three swing states — Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  The bad news?  I’m not sure the new partnership improved things.

First, let’s look at CBS’ lead on the new poll numbers, which they tout as good news for Barack Obama and bad news for Mitt Romney:

President Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters in Ohio and Florida – and has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania – according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released this morning.

The poll, conducted from July 24-30, shows Mr. Obama leading his presumptive Republican challenger 53 percent to 42 percent in Pennsylvania. The 11-point lead results largely from independents, who favor the president by 22 points, and women, who favor the president by 24 points.

Mr. Obama holds a six-point lead in Ohio, 50 percent to 44 percent, a state where he holds a campaign event later today. His lead here is also due in large part to women, who back him by a 21-point margin. Romney leads by ten points among Ohio men, and seven points among Ohio whites.

In Florida, Mr. Obama also holds a six point lead, 51 percent to 45 percent. He holds a small lead among both men and women and a 19-point lead among Hispanics, while Romney leads by double-digits among whites and voters age 65 and above.

Now let’s take a look at the partisan breakdown (D/R/I) in the sample data for each state, and compare them to 2008 and 2010 exit polling:

Florida: CBS/NYT 36/27/32, 2008 37/34/29, 2010 36/36/29

Ohio: CBS/NYT 35/27/32, 2008 39/31/30, 2010 36/37/28

Pennsylvania: CBS/NYT 38/32/26, 2008 44/37/18, 2010 40/37/23

The CBS/NYT model has Democrats a +9 in Florida when in 2008 they were only a +3 and an even split in the 2010 midterms.  Ohio’s sample has exactly the split in 2008 (D+8), which is nine points better than Democrats did in the midterms.  Pennsylvania’s numbers (D+6) come closest to a rational predictive model, somewhere between 2008′s D+7 and 2010′s D+3, but still looking mighty optimistic for Democratic turnout.

In other words, these polls are entirely predictive if one believes that Democrats will outperform their turnout models from the 2008 election in Florida and Ohio. That would require a huge boost in Democratic enthusiasm and a sharp dropoff in Republican enthusiasm — which is exactly the opposite that Gallup found last week.

CBS/NYT polling: New partner … same issues.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Florida; US: Ohio; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: fraudulentpolls; obama; romney; swingstates
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1 posted on 08/01/2012 7:07:07 AM PDT by Qbert
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To: Qbert

Quinnipiac is not a quality pollster.


2 posted on 08/01/2012 7:09:49 AM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Qbert
Disinformation...Pravda-style!
3 posted on 08/01/2012 7:11:22 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Poor Barack.If He's Reelected,Think Of The Mess He'll Inherit!)
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To: Qbert

Oh goodie! Another SeeBS/NYT “poll”! ROTFL!


4 posted on 08/01/2012 7:13:36 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (The NRA did not create James "The Joker" Holmes. Harvey Weinstein's Hollywood did.)
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To: Qbert
...Pennsylvania. The 11-point lead results largely from independents, who favor the president by 22 points ...

This seems skewed as well. This would be a 61/39 split in favor of Obama. That seems like a bit much to me. Anybody from PA who can comment on the likely split of Independents?

5 posted on 08/01/2012 7:14:52 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: Impy

Unfortunately for Obuggery oversampling of Democrats in polls is not political reality.


6 posted on 08/01/2012 7:15:34 AM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: Qbert

The poll, when taken in the Hill District, Homewood and other black neighborhoods of Pittsburgh, had obama ahead of Romney 92-8.


7 posted on 08/01/2012 7:16:10 AM PDT by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorist savages, start today.)
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To: Qbert

Wow! Obama is doing great! No need to donate to him or even show up to vote for him- he’s got it in the bag!

(We made this mistake of too many of us staying home because we thought W had it in the bag in 2000, and Gore almost took it- Let’s let them convince themselves of the same thign)


8 posted on 08/01/2012 7:17:34 AM PDT by Mr. K ("The spread of evil is the symptom of a vacuum [of good]")
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To: InterceptPoint
...Pennsylvania. The 11-point lead results largely from independents, who favor the president by 22 points ... This seems skewed as well. This would be a 61/39 split in favor of Obama. That seems like a bit much to me. Anybody from PA who can comment on the likely split of Independents?

In every poll by Rassmussen, Obama is behind with independents by around a 10 point margin, I don't even think any other pollster has Obama ahead, certainly not by a 22! point margin. Thats a whopping 32 point difference with Rasmussen. I have a feeling many of these so called "independents" were actually working in the Obama 2012 campaign office...

9 posted on 08/01/2012 7:19:47 AM PDT by apillar
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To: Qbert
From NRO...

When Quinnipiac asked its swing state samples, “Did you vote for Barack Obama or John McCain in 2008? Obama enjoys a 13 percentage point margin in Florida and a 15 percentage point margin in Ohio. Of course, in 2008, Obama won Florida by three percentage points and Ohio by 4.6 percentage points. So these are some really heavily Democrat samples.

Obama 2008 voters +13 in Florida (Obama won +3)
Obama 2008 voters +15 in Ohio (Obama won +4.6)
10 posted on 08/01/2012 7:22:02 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Qbert

They’re counting on people just reading the headline and not reading further into the story to check the samples used. Perhaps to make the fraudulent results due to the massive Democratic turnout from the cemeteries seem more legitimate?


11 posted on 08/01/2012 7:22:45 AM PDT by Random_User_250
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To: Qbert

Personally, I think this is going to be a rout on the order of the those loses by McGovern and Carter. Indeed, as I recall, the NYT had a poll that showed Reagan and Carter tied just a few days before the election. At the time I wondered: “How can a prime interest rate of 21% auger well for an incumbent president?” We all know the outcome. I think these poll numbers are whistling-in-the-graveyard. A few days into next November, I think Ricky’s “I have some ‘splainin’ to do” will be appropriate for CBS and the NYT.


12 posted on 08/01/2012 7:23:18 AM PDT by econjack (Some people are as dumb as soup.)
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To: Qbert
Full poll results from scribd.com:

Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times Poll For release: Wednesday, August 1, 20127:00 AM EDT

13 posted on 08/01/2012 7:23:36 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: InterceptPoint

The entire poll is a joke. They supposedly have Romney trailing in the swing states even more than McCain in ‘08...:

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/312845/another-day-another-democrat-heavy-poll-sample


14 posted on 08/01/2012 7:24:48 AM PDT by Qbert ("The best defense against usurpatory government is an assertive citizenry" - William F. Buckley, Jr.)
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To: Impy

Rush had it nailed yesterday. The mainstream media is in the process of shifting gears from shilling for Obama to explaining away an Obama loss. You cannot continue to goose polls like this and maintain any shred of credibility.


15 posted on 08/01/2012 7:27:02 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Qbert
the libs think it will look less disastrous if the election reads

Romney 54%

Obama 50%

16 posted on 08/01/2012 7:27:02 AM PDT by InvisibleChurch (the mature Christian is almost impossible to offend)
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To: Impy
Check out the internals of their poll. Not only they oversampled Dems by some 6%, they took great effort to pick Obama voters by even greater margin. If you look at the answers in NYT poll, in Florida for example, 13% of respondents voted to Bozo in 2008. The real margin of victory for Bozo in Fl was just 2.5%. The Obama voters are oversampled by over 10%! So even assuming all who voted for O will do the same, Romney is actually leading by some 5 or 6%. Situation is similar with OH voters, and to lesser extent PA (the race is probably dead heat there).

So this was a careful effort on the part of the "pollsters" to pick Republican leaning voters who voted for O in 2008 (or at least those claim to be leaning GOP). The whole thing doesn't not just stink: this is clearly a massive fraud, well financed and planned. Hopefully it cost NYT a lot of money.

17 posted on 08/01/2012 7:28:15 AM PDT by Moisey88 (Deja vu all over again: Back in USSR)
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To: Random_User_250

"They’re counting on people just reading the headline and not reading further into the story to check the samples used."

Yep. This is standard operating procedure for the left.

Another poll designed to try to influence people... (and a poll that completely ignores reality).

18 posted on 08/01/2012 7:30:35 AM PDT by Qbert ("The best defense against usurpatory government is an assertive citizenry" - William F. Buckley, Jr.)
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To: Qbert

Guess who has a list of all the union members phone numbers.


19 posted on 08/01/2012 7:33:37 AM PDT by Vaduz
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To: Qbert

Be mindful that nobody checked those polled for a Voter Card, they just took their word for it. Then, consider that these are the results of no verifiable basis or that they did not actually grab a much larger sample and then extrapolate the info they wanted to accomplish the stated goals for whoever actually paid for it.


20 posted on 08/01/2012 7:52:41 AM PDT by mazda77 ("Defeating the Totalitarian Lie" By: Hilmar von Campe. Everybody should read it.)
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