Skip to comments.CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac swing-state polls show Obama hitting 50% … (Massive oversampling of Democrats)
Posted on 08/01/2012 7:06:55 AM PDT by Qbert
Ive got good news and bad news for Hot Air readers today. First, the good news: After a few years of embarrassing sample skew problems in the CBS/NYT polls, the two media outlets have partnered with Quinnipiac, at least for this weeks look at three swing states Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The bad news? Im not sure the new partnership improved things.
First, lets look at CBS lead on the new poll numbers, which they tout as good news for Barack Obama and bad news for Mitt Romney:
President Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters in Ohio and Florida and has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released this morning.
The poll, conducted from July 24-30, shows Mr. Obama leading his presumptive Republican challenger 53 percent to 42 percent in Pennsylvania. The 11-point lead results largely from independents, who favor the president by 22 points, and women, who favor the president by 24 points.
Mr. Obama holds a six-point lead in Ohio, 50 percent to 44 percent, a state where he holds a campaign event later today. His lead here is also due in large part to women, who back him by a 21-point margin. Romney leads by ten points among Ohio men, and seven points among Ohio whites.
In Florida, Mr. Obama also holds a six point lead, 51 percent to 45 percent. He holds a small lead among both men and women and a 19-point lead among Hispanics, while Romney leads by double-digits among whites and voters age 65 and above.
Now lets take a look at the partisan breakdown (D/R/I) in the sample data for each state, and compare them to 2008 and 2010 exit polling:
Florida: CBS/NYT 36/27/32, 2008 37/34/29, 2010 36/36/29
Ohio: CBS/NYT 35/27/32, 2008 39/31/30, 2010 36/37/28
Pennsylvania: CBS/NYT 38/32/26, 2008 44/37/18, 2010 40/37/23
The CBS/NYT model has Democrats a +9 in Florida when in 2008 they were only a +3 and an even split in the 2010 midterms. Ohios sample has exactly the split in 2008 (D+8), which is nine points better than Democrats did in the midterms. Pennsylvanias numbers (D+6) come closest to a rational predictive model, somewhere between 2008′s D+7 and 2010′s D+3, but still looking mighty optimistic for Democratic turnout.
In other words, these polls are entirely predictive if one believes that Democrats will outperform their turnout models from the 2008 election in Florida and Ohio. That would require a huge boost in Democratic enthusiasm and a sharp dropoff in Republican enthusiasm which is exactly the opposite that Gallup found last week.
CBS/NYT polling: New partner
Quinnipiac is not a quality pollster.
Oh goodie! Another SeeBS/NYT “poll”! ROTFL!
This seems skewed as well. This would be a 61/39 split in favor of Obama. That seems like a bit much to me. Anybody from PA who can comment on the likely split of Independents?
Unfortunately for Obuggery oversampling of Democrats in polls is not political reality.
The poll, when taken in the Hill District, Homewood and other black neighborhoods of Pittsburgh, had obama ahead of Romney 92-8.
Wow! Obama is doing great! No need to donate to him or even show up to vote for him- he’s got it in the bag!
(We made this mistake of too many of us staying home because we thought W had it in the bag in 2000, and Gore almost took it- Let’s let them convince themselves of the same thign)
In every poll by Rassmussen, Obama is behind with independents by around a 10 point margin, I don't even think any other pollster has Obama ahead, certainly not by a 22! point margin. Thats a whopping 32 point difference with Rasmussen. I have a feeling many of these so called "independents" were actually working in the Obama 2012 campaign office...
They’re counting on people just reading the headline and not reading further into the story to check the samples used. Perhaps to make the fraudulent results due to the massive Democratic turnout from the cemeteries seem more legitimate?
Personally, I think this is going to be a rout on the order of the those loses by McGovern and Carter. Indeed, as I recall, the NYT had a poll that showed Reagan and Carter tied just a few days before the election. At the time I wondered: “How can a prime interest rate of 21% auger well for an incumbent president?” We all know the outcome. I think these poll numbers are whistling-in-the-graveyard. A few days into next November, I think Ricky’s “I have some ‘splainin’ to do” will be appropriate for CBS and the NYT.
The entire poll is a joke. They supposedly have Romney trailing in the swing states even more than McCain in ‘08...:
Rush had it nailed yesterday. The mainstream media is in the process of shifting gears from shilling for Obama to explaining away an Obama loss. You cannot continue to goose polls like this and maintain any shred of credibility.
So this was a careful effort on the part of the "pollsters" to pick Republican leaning voters who voted for O in 2008 (or at least those claim to be leaning GOP). The whole thing doesn't not just stink: this is clearly a massive fraud, well financed and planned. Hopefully it cost NYT a lot of money.
"Theyre counting on people just reading the headline and not reading further into the story to check the samples used."
Yep. This is standard operating procedure for the left.
Another poll designed to try to influence people... (and a poll that completely ignores reality).
Guess who has a list of all the union members phone numbers.
Be mindful that nobody checked those polled for a Voter Card, they just took their word for it. Then, consider that these are the results of no verifiable basis or that they did not actually grab a much larger sample and then extrapolate the info they wanted to accomplish the stated goals for whoever actually paid for it.
Quinnipiac University, CBS News, New York Times: To collaborate on 2012 presidential election surveys in six key swing states
Contact: Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D. Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 582-5201
Rubenstein Associates Inc. Pat Smith (212) 843-8026
Quinnipiac University, CBS News and The New York Times announced today a joint project to conduct polling during the 2012 presidential campaign. The polls will be conducted between July and October in six key swing states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin and Colorado. The polls will provide insight into the presidential race by measuring the opinions of likely voters about the candidates and the issues.
CBS News is pleased to join The New York Times and Quinnipiac University in this exciting and important project, said Sarah Dutton, Director of Surveys, CBS News. CBS News, The New York Times and Quinnipiac University all have proven track records of conducting polls that maintain the same rigorous standards. The information to come out of these polls will be invaluable during the election.
Quinnipiac University is honored to work with The New York Times and CBS News, historically two of the finest media organizations in the nation, to conduct in-depth surveys of voter opinion in six critical swing states and to present our findings as only The Times and CBS News can do, said Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
The 2012 presidential election may be decided by voters in any of these six states, said Kate Phillips, editor of News Surveys and Election Analysis, The New York Times. We look forward to working with CBS News and Quinnipiac University to provide our readers with this important information.
CBS News and The New York Times entered into the first television-newspaper polling partnership in history in 1975 and have jointly conducted polls on a near-monthly basis since then. In addition to national polls, CBS News and The New York Times have produced polling data by surveying specific sectors of the public, including African Americans, Catholics, Hispanics, Tea Party supporters, the long-term unemployed and residents of the Gulf Coast, among others. The two organizations have also conducted polls in geographic areas such as New York City, New York State, New Jersey, New Hampshire and Iowa.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For 20 years, the poll has established a record for accuracy, based on the highest standards and large sample sizes, allowing for detailed analysis of sub-groups. Insightful questions have helped shape public debate on issues. A New York State poll on attitudes about use of hands-free cell phone while driving, for example, led to passage of the first law in the nation requiring use of hands-free devices while driving.
About CBS News
CBS News is the news and information division of CBS Corporation, dedicated to providing the best in journalism under standards it pioneered at the dawn of radio and television and continues to set in todays digital age. Headquartered in the CBS Broadcast Center in New York, CBS News includes bureaus across the globe and influential, critically acclaimed programs providing news making features and interviews, investigative reports, analysis and breaking news 24 hours a day, seven days a week. CBS News utilizes a multi-platform model for news distribution across television (CBS Television Network), radio (CBS Radio News), the Internet (CBSNews.com) and hand-held devices (CBS Mobile). CBS News recently launched its new morning broadcast, CBS THIS MORNING, which joins award-winning programs 60 MINUTES, THE CBS EVENING NEWS WITH SCOTT PELLEY, 48 HOURS MYSTERY, FACE THE NATION and CBS SUNDAY MORNING.
About Quinnipiac University
Quinnipiac is a private, coeducational, nonsectarian institution in Hamden, Conn., 90 minutes north of New York City and two hours from Boston. The university enrolls 6,200 full-time undergraduate and 2,300 graduate students in 58 undergraduate and more than 20 graduate programs of study in its School of Business and Engineering, School of Communications, School of Education, School of Health Sciences, School of Law, Frank H. Netter MD School of Medicine, School of Nursing and College of Arts and Sciences. Quinnipiac consistently ranks among the top regional universities in the North in U.S. News & World Reports Americas Best Colleges issue. The 2009 issue of U.S. News & World Reports Americas Best Colleges named Quinnipiac as the top up-and-coming school with masters programs in the Northern Region. Quinnipiac also is recognized in Princeton Reviews The Best 376 Colleges. For more information, please visit www.quinnipiac.edu.
About The New York Times Company
The New York Times Company (NYSE: NYT), a leading global, multimedia news and information company with 2011 revenues of $2.3 billion, includes The New York Times, the International Herald Tribune, The Boston Globe, NYTimes.com, BostonGlobe.com, Boston.com, About.com and related properties. The Companys core purpose is to enhance society by creating, collecting and distributing high-quality news, information and entertainment.
For more data or RSS feed http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
"I think these poll numbers are whistling-in-the-graveyard."
Agree. But I strongly believe there is something that the GOP needs to emphasize repeatedly here: The economies in Fla, OH, and Penn. are improving not because of wondrous Obama... but in spite of him. Things were a disaster in these states in 2009, and voters threw out the incompetent Dems and replaced them with solid Conservative governors.
Now things are improving in these states because of Conservative leadership. Funny how that always happens...
The Republican governors need to start taking more credit for their successes, and distinguish what they have done from what Obumbler is doing/has done. And they need to demonstrate that it's solely Obama who is holding explosive growth back.
WHAT ARE THEY DOING???!?
Why are they even getting ONE PERCENT of a Republican sample???!?
The polls would look MUCH better for OTrauma if they only go like THIS: Florida: CBS/NYT 99% Democrat, 0% Republican, 1% Independent
Ohio: CBS/NYT 100% Democrat, 0% Republican, 0%Independent
Pennsylvania: CBS/NYT 358% Democrat, -158% Republican, -100% Independent
I’ve heard that they do biased polls, in which they get results which make Obama appear to be more popular than he really is.
Something tells me that this is a set up for November’s, “OMG, Obama was projected to have so totally won, this must be Republican voting fraud!”
50% is not impressive, for them.
What do you expect,this crappy university is located in the sanctuary,welfare city of New Haven ct.
I'll betcha two pesos he was talking about WFLA, the Florida station that carries the Maharushie across the fruited plain.
Every day in every 5-minute top and bottom of the hour news, WFLA has been carrying Obama's water since he was immaculated three and a half years ago.
If there's a way to spin anything in the news in a short sentence or two to favor the Usurper and his party, WFLA will spin it.
Today's spin is the phoney poll showing Hussein leading by 6 points in the Sunshine State. The station is pouring it on every half hour like it was a paid commercial by the DNC. It's burning me up in a big way!
This poll is as phony as Obama's latest birth certificate. No way does it reflect what's happening in Florida.
What's happening is horrible economic factors, thousands of closed small businesses, stores and shops in every Florida hamlet......as well as palpable disillusionment among a vast amount of seniors who are scared to death of ObamaCare.
This is stuff anyone with functioning ears hears on the ground in real time, as opposed to the biased editorial comment filtered through the corrupt MSM......whether it be carried through the printed word, or on TV or radio stations such as the blatantly-spinning and propagandizing pro-Obama station WFLA.
(...with my ear to the sand in Florida)
I just finished a Florida telephone poll. I almost hung up as I'm busy. Glad I didn't.
The caller identified herself as "Florida Future Fund". The questions seemed to me to vaguely indicate a Romney or Republican-sponsored poll. Good questions were asked, multiple-choice. I answered them straight-forward GOP, no third-party or stay-home crap.
After I hung up I brought up "Florida Future Fund", the pollsters. It's a conservative organization. I interpreted the questions correctly.
Florida Freepers, if you get a call from these pollsters, please participate. Don't hang up. The media here in FL is drooling all over "Obama's Latest Big Poll Lead, 6 Points". This is a BS propaganda ploy with phony poll numbers.
I'm so happy to report on what I think is the Romney Rapid Response Team doing its own polling here in the Sunshine State.....fighting back against the corrupt MSM war on anyone who dares oppose the Usurper in the White Hut.....plus getting its ducks in a row IMMEDIATELY to refudiate the BS Obama poll numbers.
I'm posting this alert on the FR Florida state forum also. We have to load up on these polls....we have to go on the offensive in every single way.
Be an Army of One!
I do know the Florida Family Action Centers in some counties in FL are doing phone banking polls as I have helped in making calls.
I hope folks will give some time to help out at the Florida Family Action Centers near them to help make calls. The calls are just to citizens in Florida. The system is easy to use, the numbers are dialed for you and recording the person's answers to the questions is easily done by coding the numbers into the phone.
Florida Freepers can go to this link to see if there is a calling center near them. Giving a few hours a week will help us make sure our Sunshine State goes totally Republican this November!
>>50% is not impressive, for them.
Obama is toast. He hasn’t even hit the debates yet. The problem is not that Romney is a weak Republican (which he is). The problem is that Obama has given Romney a plethora of sound bites that will be iterated again and again during the debates. What can Obama say? He has no divorce records to unseal with Romney, so he has no upper hand except Romneycare.
Above all else, I hope that Romney, from the first debate, will succinctly apologize for Romneycare simply because it became a reason for the perverted creation of Obamacare, and then he will comprehensively list all of the demerits of Obamacare publicly and on camera. If he does this, the Democrat administration will be pounded to dust.
Super lame. What's the point of even doing such a bad job? They aren't fooling anyone who's not an idiot.
At any rate, here in Orlando they start off the day with local personality Bud Heddinger, who is more-or-less conservative, from 6-9 am, then Glenn Beck from 9-noon then Rush. The on-the-hour- news is Fox Radio News. I don't know much about their tie in with Tampa / St Pete, but something seems amiss here. It appears to be conservative to me.
I seem to be over the vertigo and am back on the web... so far so good! ;-)