Is the election already over? (Most Americans have already made up their minds)

Could it be true? Is all of this endless campaigning, a billion dollars in advertising and 24/7 blanket coverage of every word, gesture and sneeze by the candidates all a gigantic waste of time in an election which has essentially already been decided? That’s one possibility suggested by Dave Helling of McClatchy Newspapers who suggests that, "People's minds are made up, unlikely to change."

OK… so if the election is over, tell us who won so we can all get back to the important business of getting ready for the NFL pre-season games. Sadly, the analysis breaks down at that point, saying only that a rolling index of poll averages shows that the numbers are so tight that they’re within the margin of error. (And if you’ll pardon my saying, I think we already knew it was going to be close.)

Not for nothing, but telling us that the election is over but it’s going to come down to a handful of voters is pretty much akin to saying that the gun pointed at you is really close to being on target, so the bullet may or may not hit you. I think you’d want to have that information at hand in advance so you could still duck.

The author also goes on to point out that all of this depends on things staying pretty much as they are. A “big mistake” or a critical change in either domestic or foreign circumstances could still tilt the scale. I found that admission to be a rather blunt blow to the premise of the entire article.

But there is still a valid and interesting phenomenon being described in this study which is worth mulling over. Are Americans making up their minds much earlier than they did as little as fifteen years ago, and if so, why? It’s possible, at least for a percentage of the available voting pie. One reason cited by Helling is that campaigns and their well funded surrogates have the money to begin running saturation advertising much earlier in the cycle than in the old days, when candidates would jealously hoard much of their war chest for the critical final weeks and then launch an all out ad blitz.

If the voters are already living in a deeply divided nation (politically speaking) and begin seeing reinforcing messages on a daily basis as much as a year in advance, I’m guessing it can have an effect. If you’re already leaning one way or the other, the constant flood of “information” can serve to bolster those feelings. If you’re already leaning in Romney’s direction, all those ads from Obama about Mitt’s “shady” overseas dealings, investments and outsourcing will probably roll off your back as little more than poorly spun side effects of a successful, competent business career. If you’re pretty well leaning toward Obama, ads talking about massive spending, debt and unemployment will probably be interpreted as “just the way things are now” after the GOP broke the system before Obama took office and the way they “won’t work with him” to fix anything.

It’s easy to see how the “undecided vote” could be pared down to a far slimmer margin much earlier than it used to. And those unfortunate enough to live in the roughly ten or so swing states have doubtless grown accustomed to the constant presence of the candidates on their TV screens and in their public squares as little more than a bothersome fact of life.

Sure, the election may be over for a vast majority of Americans… possibly as much as 90 to 95 percent. But it’s that last little bit who will decide which side of the razor this election lands on. And with that in mind, the two sides are going to be fighting all the harder from now until election day morning.

[[ Is the election already over? (Most Americans have already made up their minds) ]]

It’s not “over” til it’s over, but this one’s gonna be a squeaker.

I see five basic “voting blocs”:
- The hard left
- The “middle” democrats (still “on the left”, but less so than category 1)
- The “mushy middle” (so called “independents” who are akin to “waving wheat”)
- The “moderate” Republicans (including the “GOP-E”)
- The religious/values/traditional right

The hard left is unchangeable — they are committed to whomever is running with the label “democrat”.

The “middle democrats” are also un-persuadable. They will pull the lever for Obama in November.

The “mushy middle” are the waving wheats of the election. They shape their political opinions as directed by the “prevailing political winds”. I sense that this time around, however, a fairly good-sized chunk of this voting cohort has indeed already made up their minds, even though doing so this early goes against their own “internal grain” (like it or not, race probably has as much to do with this as anything else). Yet there remain a good number of these voters who simply can’t make up their minds — we see this in the polls which shift back-and-forth. How they break is going to be one of the main factors in the election (read on for #2).

The “moderate Republicans” are going to vote for Romney, as is to be expected.

This leaves the OTHER deciding factor, that is, the “religious/values right” bloc of voters. I sense many if not most Freepers fall into this category.

And it’s here that Mr. Romney has problems, as well. Normally this cohort would be in total opposition to Obama, but there are many of them (witness the posts right in this forum) who steadfastly refuse to support Romney. Whether they will continue to withhold support might “tip the balance” to Obama in a few battleground states. Virginia, Florida, Ohio and Colorado come to mind (although Colorado seems to be trending “California-ward” in recent elections).

If this trend continues, with neither candidate “breaking 50” in the critical states, expect the political rhetoric to accelerate to a howling crescendo in a frantic attempt to wring out those few votes needed to put one or the other over the top. I also expect the left and the media to play the “racis’ card” for everything it’s worth. They lose nothing by doing so, and for them, it’s a winning strategy.

Perhaps the “stuck numbers” of the polls are in themselves an indication of just how divided America has become — two ideologically opposed camps in a state of “cold war”. In the past, it was possible to “reach across the gap” in an effort to persuade some members of “the other party” to cross the line and by doing so to build enough votes for a significant electoral victory, even a landslide. But that’s become impossible because both sides are so divided and view each other with such contempt.

So in a few states, each side struggles harder and harder for a relatively small portion of the vote to give it victory.

Again, it’s going to be a close one.

See Post #7 and Post #37

The pesky common housefly. Well, it happens to everyone, right? But what if it happens to the President of the USA right when he is delivering an important speech being televised? What if it has happened multiple times (which it has)? What if a small rat has run across the stage right near the podium while BO was speaking (which has happened)?

Are God’s creatures trying to TELL us something?

This is just something I started noticing since the 70’s when I observed a bug that started slowly crawling up a microphone, never noticed by a pontificating politician who was a fine Republican businessman. He could near the end of his speech almost have touched the thing with his mouth, but never seemed to notice.

Well, BO noticed and waved the fly off.

Perhaps this is just a reminder that we all need to strive to walk humbly with our God.

(Seeking joy wherever I can find it.)

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