Okay, let’s do the math shall we?
If you have at least 34 confirmed “no” votes who SHOW UP and vote “no”, this sucker goes down....PERIOD.....no matter what the quorum call is.
The math can’t be debated.
Currently, the GOP has 35 dedicated senators who have pledged to show up and vote “no”. Because of this, the treaty can’t pass no matter how many senators show up.
(1) To reach quorum, you’ll need at least 51 senators
(2) Currently, the GOP has 35 dedicated “no” votes (According to Senator Inhofe more GOP senators...not on the current 35 name list...will also vote “no” if this treaty comes to a floor vote)
(3) 2/3 of attending senators (if quorum is made) are needed to pass a treaty.
Lets say you have 90 Senators who show up. You will then need 60 votes to pass the treaty. If we have 35 committed “no” votes who show up and vote “no” the best the Democrats will get is 55 votes. 55 is not 2/3 of 90....5 votes short
Lets say you have 75 senators who show up. You will then need 50 votes to pass the treaty. If you have 35 committed “no” votes who show up and vote “no”, the best the Democrats will get is 40 votes. 40 is not 2/3 of 75.....10 votes short
Lets say you have 60 senators who show up. You will then need 40 votes to pass the treaty. If you have 35 committed “no” votes who show up and vote “no”, the best the Democrats will have is 25 votes. 25 is not 2/3 of 40.....15 votes short
Moral of the story: The 35 dedicated “no” votes will have to show up, quorum is declared, they vote “no”, and it’s over.
If the Democrats table the bill, it’s essentially over until 2013 but the odds will only get worse as the GOP is projected to take the Senate with a new batch of conservative Freshman.
If not enough people show up for quorum (most likely Democrats), no vote will be taken. Egg is on the Democrat’s faces and unless they try trickery (and the GOP will eye them like a hawk for shenanigans) it’s over until next year (see above paragraph for future LOST prospects). It also means the Democrats realize that LOST is a lost cause and don’t want to go on the record (those supporting LOST, and running for reelection in 2014, don’t want this embarrassment to linger). Quite frankly, if enough Democrats decide to be a no-show they’ll call off the vote rather than risk the embarrassment.
Senator Manchin (WV) MUST be having second thoughts about this.
Quite frankly, on the day of the vote, if you see Democratic senators AWOL on the quorum call, you’ll know that LOST is DOA.
Simple as that.