“This will go back to 2004. Kerry won Rat states, Bush won Republican states. It is now back to Ohio. Difference is Romney has a better chance of picking off Obama states than Obama has of picking off Romney states.Will it be enough?”
The way I see it is there are 4 possible outcomes.Romney in a landslide. Romney in a close election. Obama in a landslide. Obama in a close election.
The only outcome I think we can currently rule out is the Obama in a landslide scenario because I agree that the marginally red states that voted for him last time will not be voting for him this time.We may very well have the reverse with Romney picking up the marginally blue states like Iowa and Wisconsin resulting in a landslide with a Republican Senate ushered in or the 2004 scenario you described fighting over a few battleground states and a divided Congress. I think it gets down to the white vote. Obama won last time with the highest percentage of white voters (around 4%)than any Dem candidate since Johnson.Right now he is polling in the high thirties among white voters, the lowest in 60 years. Only problem is they are lesser share of the population this time around than in 2008.
Correction (around 4%) should be (around 44%)