I’m not projecting or assuming anything, all I’m saying is that population facts of what has been for 25+ years is likely to continue.
What new social or political forces could change what has happened in Israel for the last 25 years?
I don’t agree with any projection beyond 10 years, they project out 20 and I agree with you that is a stretch.
Your CIA reference states that Israel’s birthrate is lower (2.67) than the West Bank (2.98). ??
“I’m not projecting or assuming anything, all I’m saying is that population facts of what has been for 25+ years is likely to continue.”
“Likely to continue” is a linear projection. Given changing birthrates, such a projection is likely to be off. It’s a conclusion, in any case, not a fact.
“What new social or political forces could change what has happened in Israel for the last 25 years?”
Immigration rates could go up or down, as could birthrates. They have been, and likely will continue to.
“I don’t agree with any projection beyond 10 years, they project out 20 and I agree with you that is a stretch.”
Ten years does seem safe, but the change then seen is modest, not a game-changer. I suspect that 10 years from now, there will be a larger percentage of Arabs, but the Jews will be more religious and conservative. Assuming that the politics of both these groups will be the same, the country would become more polarized.
“Your CIA reference states that Israel’s birthrate is lower (2.67) than the West Bank (2.98). ??”
I was pointing out that the rates are not far apart anymore. In 1990, the West Bank birthrate reportedly averaged over 6 per mother. It’s dropped by more than 50% in 20 years. It behooves one to ask why, and whether that trend is going to continue.