It struck me last night that the staggering of the decisions might not bode well for Obamacare being struck down. I think the most likely outcome is striking the mandate and leaving the rest alone, but with Kagan in the game and the last decision raising the possibility of a Roberts defection, its not impossible we’re in for a bumpier ride than we’ve planned for.
It could be the complete opposite I guess.. struck down in toto, and hopefully by 7-3 or greater. If its 5-4 again the libs are gonna go nuts. Might be fun to watch but its going to again lower the legitimacy of the court in the eyes of people who dislike the appearance of USSC partisanship.
The WORST outcome would be to strike down the individual mandate but allow the rest. Individuals would be able to “not buy insurance until they needed it (got sick).” Insurance costs would multiply exponentially, and employers would be forced to stop providing insurance, or go broke themselves.
Since insurance companies would not be allowed to turn these sick people away (pre-existing conditions), the companies would quickly go bankrupt.
With no health insurance companies, and no HMO’s, only the very rich would be able to afford healthcare.
The result would be TOTAL CHAOS chaos for US healthcare. The only remedy would then be total government takeover, massive tax hikes, and ultimately, national economic ruin.
I’m confident that the court realizes this and will strike down the whole thing as unconstitutional.
Then we can implement some common sense incremental healthcare and insurance improvements, such as portability and tort reform.