Michigan, if it flips, is minimum 313EV for Mittens on the way to a blowout...he peels off Michigan, that means he's won the South en banc, and he's taken Wisconsin too.
I’m a bit more cautious than that. He could peel off Michigan purely because of his past family ties to the state and access to the MI political machine. That and his family’s liberal past could combine to give him Michigan.
Those same conditions wouldn’t apply elsewhere, so a Michigan win doesn’t necessarily mean and Ohio or Pennsylvania win.
I’m a bit more cautious than that. He could peel off Michigan purely because of his past family ties to the state and access to the MI political machine. That and his family’s liberal past could combine to give him Michigan.
Those same conditions wouldn’t apply elsewhere, so a Michigan win doesn’t necessarily mean an Ohio or Pennsylvania win.