“If Romney can win Michigan, then he can afford to lose Ohio.”
If Romney wins Michigan, chances are he wins Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. That would be huge.
I think the biggest “problem” state is Virginia this year. There have been some seismic demographic shifts in that state since 2004.
I doubt Florida and North Carolina are going to be a battleground states this year. I’d be shocked if Romney has to campaign very hard there. I expect to see most of the “aggressive” campaigning in Ohio and Virginia this year.
If you see Romney and Obama campaigning hard in Wisconsin and Michigan, Obama is done unless Romney eats both kittens and puppies on live TV. It’ll have to be BOTH too ... I think Romney could win while firing down a tiny Maine Coon or Chow Chow with a side of corn :-) ... just not both!!!
Obama is stopping at a horse’s house in NYC today ... he must be going after the animal lover’s vote.
“I think the biggest “problem” state is Virginia this year. There have been some seismic demographic shifts in that state since 2004.”
Like Maryland, Virginia has had a influx of “effluent” from Washington DC.
I'm not worried about Virginia. VA has been safely Republican since the 2010 elections- landslide election for Governor and good wins in the House. Also, Jim Webb's quitting this year and I don't see a Dem taking that seat.
Virginia will be OK... just as NC will be. 2008 was a weird dynamic for this and other states. The election results of 2009 and 2010 show the good guys still have a lot of firepower left.