I am encouraged at the polling results, however my real concern is that how does this translate to the electoral college? He needs 270 to get re-elected and he still has comfortable lead in the polls of the big EV states.
In theory, could he not get re-elected carrying fewer states then Romney but have more EV?
Yes, the EC breakdown will not be the 49-1 that Regans re-election is, because of the population distribution... and yes there is statistically a possibility that you could lose the popular vote by a significant margin and still hold the EC, and if I were Obama I’d try for this game, because honestly he has ZERO chance at the popular vote...
HOWEVER< Obama isn’t close to even pulling that off.
Republicans gain 6 EC votes out of the gate, thanks to the last census. Obama is toast, he’s lost the rust belt, he’s alienated the blue dogs, which means the only southern state he has even the most remote chance of holding is VA, and that’s not likely.. NC, FL will not go blue. But more importantly he’s lost the RUST BELT thanks to that.
WI, IA, IN, OH are lost to him, and MI and PA most likely as well.
The only Rust Belt states I think he has any prayer of holding are MN and IL...
And if he loses either of those states, you will see new england states fall as well.
NH will go red as well.
Obama is not going to be remotely close enough on election day to win the EC but lose the popular vote.. hes going to lose by 12-15 points at least.