Does anyone try to track this on a DETAILED state by state basis? It is all well and good to make these assumptions, but if Obama loses 5% in CA..it doesn’t matter, same with NY.
If Romney loses a bit in Texas it wouldn’t matter.
What matters is the same handful of state that have been talked about for the last few elections. Latinos IN OHIO and IN FLORIDA and IN NEVADA. Young voters in WISC and VIRGINIA etc.
It doesn’t matter in states like Conn, Alabama, Georgia, New Jersey etc.