[Political Junkie Too]

This is the initial run of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

I'll begin by listing the states that have recent polls, and then list the states that are still within the margin-of- error.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Below are the first round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll, and the second number is the separation from Obama's result. "No Poll" means the state's final 2008 vote is within the default margin of error (4.5%).

Watch List:

• Arizona: No Poll (R +8.5%)
• Colorado: No Poll (R -9.0) - just within the default margin of error
• Florida: -2.1% (R +1%)
• Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%)
• Indiana: No Poll (R -1%)
• Massachusetts: -1% (R -21%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Missouri: -1.4% (R +3%)
• Montana: +1.5% (R +7%)
• Nevada: +1.3% (R -8%)
• New Mexico: -5.8% (R -16%) - drops out of the margin of error
• North Carolina: -3.4% (R +2%)
• North Dakota: No Poll (R +8.7%)
• Ohio: -4.8% (R -4%)
• South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - just within the default margin of error
• South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%)
• Virginia: -1.3% (R +1%)
• Wisconsin: +2.7% (R -4%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
11-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%

Graphs and maps to come later.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Here I go again.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

This is the initial run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

I'll begin by listing the states that have recent polls, and then list the states that are still within the margin-of- error.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins here.

Below are the first round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result. "No Poll" means the state's last final election vote is within the default margin of error (4.5%). For incumbants, the seat will be considered safe until a new poll is taken.

Watch List:

• Arizona 1: -6% (R +17%) - waiting for primary results
• Florida 2: -2.1% (R -11%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Massachusetts 1: -6.9% (R +0%)
• Missouri 2: +1.7% (R +7%)
• Montana 2: +4.7% (R +10%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Nebraska 2: +18.9% (R +22%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Nevada 1: -4.4% (R +11%) - drops out of the margin of error
• New Mexico 1: +12.7% (R -4%)
• New York 1: No Poll (R -24%) - waiting for primary results
• Ohio 1: -2.8% (R -3%)
• Rhode Island 2: No Poll (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: No Poll (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: -3.2% (R +1%)
• Wisconsin 2: +20.5% (R +12%) - drops out of the margin of error

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
11-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4

-PJ