[NE Cons]

Looks like his coming out announcement did a lot to help him!

[Grampa Dave]

[bramps]

Look for the Mormon attacks to begin any day.

[Williams]

People are sick of obama, they know he’s a failure and this doesn’t surprise me 1 bit.

[Williams]

Keep in mind an Obamacare ruling is coming, which can’t help obama much either way.

[Political Junkie Too]

This is the initial run of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

I'll begin by listing the states that have recent polls, and then list the states that are still within the margin-of- error.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Below are the first round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll, and the second number is the separation from Obama's result. "No Poll" means the state's final 2008 vote is within the default margin of error (4.5%).

Watch List:

• Arizona: No Poll (R +8.5%)
• Colorado: No Poll (R -9.0) - just within the default margin of error
• Florida: -2.1% (R +1%)
• Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%)
• Indiana: No Poll (R -1%)
• Massachusetts: -1% (R -21%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Missouri: -1.4% (R +3%)
• Montana: +1.5% (R +7%)
• Nevada: +1.3% (R -8%)
• New Mexico: -5.8% (R -16%) - drops out of the margin of error
• North Carolina: -3.4% (R +2%)
• North Dakota: No Poll (R +8.7%)
• Ohio: -4.8% (R -4%)
• South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - just within the default margin of error
• South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%)
• Virginia: -1.3% (R +1%)
• Wisconsin: +2.7% (R -4%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
11-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%

Graphs and maps to come later.

-PJ

[Cringing Negativism Network]

visualize imprisonment.

[DAC21]

Attackwatch.com must be boiling over.

Worth seeing again - Attackwatch parody

http://rabidrepublicanblog.com/2011/09/14/obamas-attack-watch-website-parody/

Hitler laments the failure of Attackwatch.com

http://teapartyatperrysburg.blogspot.com/2011/09/attack-watch-parody.html

[stockpirate]

I think it may be time for us here at FR to move towards Romney.

[woweeitsme]

Wow...the poll is down to 47-45 today. I guess I’m just not seeing what is bring the clown back.