Look for the Mormon attacks to begin any day.
People are sick of obama, they know he’s a failure and this doesn’t surprise me 1 bit.
Keep in mind an Obamacare ruling is coming, which can’t help obama much either way.
The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.
I'll begin by listing the states that have recent polls, and then list the states that are still within the margin-of- error.
Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.
Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.
Below are the first round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll, and the second number is the separation from Obama's result. "No Poll" means the state's final 2008 vote is within the default margin of error (4.5%).
Watch List:
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Week | GOP Electoral College P10 |
GOP Electoral College EV |
GOP Electoral College P90 |
Probability of 270 |
---|---|---|---|---|
2008 Election | 180 | 180 | 180 | 0.00% |
11-May-12 | 193 | 220.73 | 248 | 0.16% |
Graphs and maps to come later.
-PJ
visualize imprisonment.
Worth seeing again - Attackwatch parody
http://rabidrepublicanblog.com/2011/09/14/obamas-attack-watch-website-parody/
Hitler laments the failure of Attackwatch.com
http://teapartyatperrysburg.blogspot.com/2011/09/attack-watch-parody.html
I think it may be time for us here at FR to move towards Romney.
Wow...the poll is down to 47-45 today. I guess I’m just not seeing what is bring the clown back.