Actually, the defeat at Midway did that, but by extention, you are correct. The Doolittle Raid, as previously posted, set in motion the events that led to Operation MI (JN-25 “AF”) Midway. Previously, the Japanese leadership was lukewarm to Yamamoto’s proposal.
Had Midway gone as planned, a move against Hawaii would have followed very soon thereafter. It may have been “game over”, at that point. Australia was essentially defenseless from invasion and the British in the Far East were equally useless, at the time. Without the advance base at Pearl, sorties from the West Coast would be perilous, at best. The Panama Canal would have been either bombed or seized.
Thank you for these comments.