I believe that Florida and Ohio will go to Romney. The fact that Michigan is even in play should be scary for Obama. Usually a DNC stronghold. All three of these States have Republican Governors which sometimes helps depending on the state of the party.
We will have to watch NC and VA.
Right now Ohio is dead even, and can go either way. I think that high gas prices and a continuing bad economy will give it to the GOP..Also, Josh Mandel is just about even with Brown for the Senate race, and he hasn't even begun to campaign hard.
But there is no way that Florida votes for Obama again. The state is trending solidly RED. In 2010, we had a pretty bitter primary for governor, yet still managed to retire Crist and wipe out the Dem in the general.
WE win Florida, and also send Nelson into retirement..