This is an abysmal result for Obama. A poll taken after GOP nominees have been stomping each other's guts out over the course of 9 months, and an 11 point margin is all Obama can muster up in a state he won by a 26 point margin over McCain? Subtract 15 points from all of Obama's state-by-state victory margins in 2008, and 2012 begins to look like a 332 to 206 GOP landslide victory - not as big as Obama's 2008 margin, but nothing that will require a recount anywhere in the country.
332. You gotta flip PA to get there. The more plausible home run scenario -- a mass rejection of Bobo -- still leaves behind MN, CO (yes, CO), PA, but otherwise flips the upper Rust Belt...313-225