1) Obama's incredibly Machiavellian nature. Never seen someone so willing to destroy an entire country, just to rule over the smoking ruins.
2) A gut-feeling by watching the little signs emerging from the complicit State Run media. Most notably, a fairly positive NYT piece that mentioned our focus on litoral warships intended to "battle Iranian attack boats, clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz", and a mention that there will be a second US CVN in the Strait of Hormuz in the Washington Post.