If it is Romney, not sure yet how conservatives will react. I think he might win, but I think he is very likely to lose in numbers similar to Dole for the same reasons and some new ones.
Fight like hell through the convention to keep us from being saddled with Romney. If we fail, then we have to figure out what to do at that point. I don't want to think about failure, either to defeat Romney or Obama.
I think you underestimate Romney. He did not make a huge fortune by being a wimp. He knows there is more than one way to skin a cat, and will play the nice guy while it suits him, but no longer.
The polls mean nothing at this time. The vast majority of voters aren't paying attention to this year's election, and won't until after Labor Day.
I'm not discounting Laz's thoughts, but remember this:
it will all crystalize the last weekend before Election Day. The average voter will ask themselves, "do I really want another 4 years of Obama?"
Through that examination, they'll be reminded of inflation at the grocery store, pain at the pump, crony capitalism (green energy - Solyndra), 15% effective unemployment, a few more vacations by Michelle, and the likelihood the debt limit has been reached ahead of schedule...again.
If the Pubbies/Mitt can focus on the economy, and the spectre of an unfettered Obama in his second term, Romney should win 350+ EV's.