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Game Over? (A brokered convention now looks highly unlikely)
National Review ^ | 04/04/2012 | Brian Bolduc

Posted on 04/04/2012 4:32:20 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Three months have passed, 36 states and territories have voted, and the Republican party has yet to settle on a presidential nominee. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have pinned their hopes on a brokered convention in which committee members, most of whom can vote independently, could play a decisive role. Nonetheless, members of the Republican National Committee tell National Review Online that a brokered convention is unlikely to happen. And thankfully so, since most members believe it would harm the party’s chances of victory in November.

“There won’t be a brokered convention,” says Jack Lindley, chairman of the Vermont GOP. Mitt Romney is “more than halfway there” in terms of delegates, he argues. “I don’t know where the other guys’ Kool-Aid is coming from.”

Slightly more circumspect, Jim Bopp, national committeeman for Indiana, tells NRO that a brokered convention is “extremely unlikely.”

“To me it’s obvious that Mitt Romney has a substantial lead,” says Joe Trillo, national committeeman for Rhode Island. “And I think as it gets closer to the convention the other candidates should certainly step aside.”

There’s not much sympathy for ex–speaker of the House Newt Gingrich among these members. “I don’t understand where the heck Newt is,” says Pat Longo, national committeewoman for Connecticut. “One day he says Romney is the likely nominee; today I read that he wants his positions in the platform. I’ve served on a platform committee twice, and, quite frankly, I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of changes.”

“Gingrich doesn’t have a chance; he’s just being Gingrich,” says Jody Dow, national committeewoman for Massachusetts.

It’s worth noting that all of the foregoing Republicans are Romney supporters.

“I think Newt has gotten into the Don Quixote mode,” says Bob Bennett, national committeeman for Ohio. “I think he’s tilting at windmills.”

Not everybody is convinced the race is over. “All three candidates are a long way from 1,144 delegates,” says Peggy Lambert, national committeewoman for Tennessee. Nonetheless, she adds that those candidates who are “so far behind that they don’t really have a chance, I think they should drop out. But I’d like to keep Newt Gingrich’s pugnaciousness in there.”

Sandy Boehler, national committeewoman for North Dakota, is similarly torn over the pros and cons of a brokered convention. “I’ve kind of been looking forward to the excitement,” she admits. “It just brings the adrenaline out.”

“The president gets ink every day whether he likes it or not, so we are in a position to compete because there’s news — there’s something going on,” says Mark Zaccaria, chairman of the Rhode Island GOP. Zaccaria, however, thinks Romney will win the nomination before the first ballot is cast.

Because the RNC has been accumulating a war chest to use in the general election, “I don’t think a brokered convention would be detrimental to the candidate,” says Phyllis Woods, national committeewoman for New Hampshire.

Priscilla Rakestraw, national committeewoman for Delaware, agrees — to a certain extent. “A brokered convention is an advantage probably only to the viewing public,” she says, “and perhaps to the point that it adds additional excitement and electricity to the convention.”

Although she believes Romney will ultimately win, Rakestraw adds that she’s concerned with the tone the other candidates have taken recently. “I think from time to time they’ve forgotten who they’re running against. They’re not running against their fellow Republican; they’re running against President Obama.”

“I’m an agnostic on whether a contested convention would be a good thing or a bad thing,” says John Ryder, national committeeman for Tennessee. “The idea of the delegates elected by primary voters throughout the country making actual decisions is not a bad thing — in terms of small-r republican principles. On the other hand, the convention finishes on August 30, and early voting starts in many states 30 days after that. I think our candidate’s going to need more time to lay out the case against Barack Obama.”

Solomon Yue, national committeeman for Oregon, thinks the chances for a contested convention are slim, and for evidence he cites the lack of lobbying of RNC members by the candidates. “In 2008, I helped to organize RNC members for Mitt Romney, and we had 87 supporters,” he says. “Nothing is happening this year.” The reason, he suspects, is that the Romney campaign is confident it can win the 1,144 delegates needed to clinch the nomination without a “buffer” of super delegates.

For now, the prospect of a contested convention remains mere speculation, albeit speculation that brings a gleam to the eyes of some conservatives.

— Brian Bolduc is an editorial associate for National Review.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gop; primaries; rnc

1 posted on 04/04/2012 4:32:33 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

If he doesn’t drop out now, Santorum will be staying in simply to try enhance his name recognition for a 2016 run. Which sucks because for that plan to work he must root for Obama to win in November.

Newt is looking for a way out. He may require assistance in retiring his $2M campaign debt to help him make up his mind.


2 posted on 04/04/2012 4:46:27 AM PDT by citizen (Santorum: Man up, stop being selfish and get the hell out. Dragging this thing out only helps Obama.)
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To: citizen
The choice is Romney running without the support of rank and file party members ~ something that happened to Barry Goldwater ~ or a brokered convention where coalitions are reworked.

If you don't have the party base behind you it's simply not possible to win.

The National Review crowd seems to have forgotten how it's done.

3 posted on 04/04/2012 4:56:52 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah

So it’ best then to vote for Obama in November rather than Romney if Gingrich or Santorum are out of the picture? Now that makes sense. While Romney isn’t my preferred candidate I support what Palin said: anybody but Obama!


4 posted on 04/04/2012 5:12:33 AM PDT by From The Deer Stand
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To: citizen

Get romney to write Newt a fat check... he has written everyone but Santorum and Gingrich checks to date.

LLS


5 posted on 04/04/2012 5:24:04 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (WOLVERINES!)
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To: From The Deer Stand
The choice is for ROMNEY TO DROP OUT NOW. It's pretty obvious he's a minority candidate within the Republican field.

Can you imagine the Paulistas, who want legal dope, to switch to Romney who carries with him the Mormon baggage that considers coffee and Coca Cola to be just as bad?

For virtually all Conservatives Santorum or Gingrich are a better choice than Romney under any and all conditions.

6 posted on 04/04/2012 5:25:07 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: From The Deer Stand
The choice is for ROMNEY TO DROP OUT NOW. It's pretty obvious he's a minority candidate within the Republican field.

Can you imagine the Paulistas, who want legal dope, to switch to Romney who carries with him the Mormon baggage that considers coffee and Coca Cola to be just as bad?

For virtually all Conservatives Santorum or Gingrich are a better choice than Romney under any and all conditions.

7 posted on 04/04/2012 5:25:27 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah

The only big wins Romney has gotten are on the east coast. In the midwest he’s either lost big or barely scraped out wins. In the south he’s done nothing but lose.

The fact is, the media and GOP are desperate for everyone to get out before their big lie is exposed by losses Romney will take in upcoming states.


8 posted on 04/04/2012 5:34:21 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: citizen
If he doesn’t drop out now, Santorum will be staying in simply to try enhance his name recognition for a 2016 run. Which sucks because for that plan to work he must root for Obama to win in November.

If Romney is the nominee, an Obama victory is a foregone conclusion. The focus now should be what systemic change conservatives can make to the Republican Party to make it a real opposition party, or whether leaving a party that already left us is a better option.

9 posted on 04/04/2012 5:38:58 AM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (Myth Romney: "Governor Goodhair" is really just a Whig.)
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To: From The Deer Stand
The article is correct about the problem of a convention fight to settle things:

...the convention finishes on August 30, and early voting starts in many states 30 days after that. I think our candidate’s going to need more time to lay out the case against Barack Obama.”

Waiting until September right before the voting begins to run ads for Romney (or whoever else) is about as stupid as we can get.

10 posted on 04/04/2012 5:40:31 AM PDT by citizen (Santorum: Man up, stop being selfish and get the hell out. Dragging this thing out only helps Obama.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I am not sure if what I have read falls into the category of a brokered convention or not.

The topic surrounds around FL and other states,where the RNC has declared the delegates would be awarded on a percentage basis to the to the participants. The media and the RNC are not counting the delegates as they should be, i.e. by percentage vs winner take all.

Newt has stated many times, Mitt must earn his 1144. Does this mean Newt could challenge the RNC in the courts to follow their rule?


11 posted on 04/04/2012 5:43:26 AM PDT by tiger-one
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To: cripplecreek
losses Romney will take in upcoming states.

Umm...huh?

The only state Romney has a chance of losing for the rest of the month is Pennsylvania (leaving aside Missouri which has yet another meaningless caucus or something.)

12 posted on 04/04/2012 5:44:18 AM PDT by Strategerist
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To: From The Deer Stand

Even if it’s Obama’s brother?


13 posted on 04/04/2012 5:44:33 AM PDT by cableguymn (Good thing I am a conservative. Otherwise I would have to support Mittens like Republicans do.)
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To: From The Deer Stand

I agree


14 posted on 04/04/2012 5:45:47 AM PDT by mel (There are only 2 races decent and undecent people)
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To: citizen

I am sure YOU republicans will be just fine without my conservative vote. Have fun.


15 posted on 04/04/2012 6:04:23 AM PDT by st.eqed
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To: From The Deer Stand

Romney IS obama. NO THANKS.


16 posted on 04/04/2012 6:06:59 AM PDT by st.eqed
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To: Colonel_Flagg

That’s where I’m at, Colonel.

The party that I have been a loyal member of for my whole adult life..has abandoned me.

So should I leave them or stay and hope that they will finally acknowledge the Conservatives who are responsible for their victories in 2010 and change?

Mittens will throw the Tea Party under the bus as soon as the ink on his nomination papers is dry.
And he still refuses to come on Mark Levin’s show. What does that tell you?


17 posted on 04/04/2012 6:07:58 AM PDT by Mountain Mary ("This is OUR country and WE will decide"... Mark Levin)
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To: Mountain Mary

I meant to put an LOL after the word change in my last post.


18 posted on 04/04/2012 6:10:19 AM PDT by Mountain Mary ("This is OUR country and WE will decide"... Mark Levin)
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To: Mountain Mary
I'm still counting on a miracle....

..but suffice to say if I didn't know before that the Republicans have no interest in folks like me.......I certainly know now.

I have been a loyal Republican since the day I was old enough to vote....

.....I didn't leave them.....they left me.

Romney is evil, imo....and he has spent millions trying to wipe out all opposition...by ruthless and cutthroat means.

WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM.....I WON'T.

19 posted on 04/04/2012 6:36:35 AM PDT by Guenevere (....Whom God calls,... He equips......Press On Santorum!)
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To: SeekAndFind
For about 2 years, I've seen that Romney-the-RINO was going to be the Nominee, as he was the GOP-e pick, and NOTHING was going to get in their way. We saw them smear and attack every Conservative who appeared as a threat, in the same manner as Sarah Palin was attacked from 2006 to the present.

The Messiah is now assured of 4 more years, and CWII will ensue, make no mistake about it. The Muslim-in-Chief has been ruling by EO's, and has now pronounced that he is in total command of all resources, military, etc., so that when the 85% of the country which is white, begins to stir against the combined Marxist-Black alliance, he will try to quell the uprising that says "ENOUGH!".

It's gonna be a mess......and, the Economy will collapse totally.

20 posted on 04/04/2012 6:44:01 AM PDT by traditional1 (Don't gotsta worry 'bout no mo'gage, don't gotsta worry 'bout no gas; Obama gonna take care o' me!)
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To: All

A brokered convention was never likely. This race has been in Romney’s hands for quite a while, even in the few days of seeming Santorum and Gingrich momentum.


21 posted on 04/04/2012 6:46:02 AM PDT by WillVoteForFood
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To: SeekAndFind

When you are about to get raped there is no reason to give up and stop fighting. Romney / RNC / Fox / Media don’t have a gun.

We can vote against Romney as long as it is possible, and then make sure Obama doesn’t win in November. They are not mutually exclusive.

I don’t know about you people but I am not an etch a sketch. I’d like to see Romney lose some states.


22 posted on 04/04/2012 6:46:49 AM PDT by Yaelle (Let's fight Romney with every primary. Why make it easy for him? Go Rick!)
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To: Mountain Mary; Guenevere

Let me put it this way, friends, and I must ask you to please pardon my ungentlemanly choice of words:

I do not suffer from battered spouse syndrome, and I never will. I know when I am not wanted and it is clear that the Republican Party no longer wants me.

Either I help change that party, or I leave it. But I will not live on my knees.


23 posted on 04/04/2012 6:52:04 AM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (There will be no vote for Myth Romney in my house. Period.)
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To: Colonel_Flagg
I'm afraid 'helping change the party' is no longer an option (if it ever was).

They knew what they were doing.....they've done this before....they will do it again

Leaving seems the only option for me.

24 posted on 04/04/2012 7:08:08 AM PDT by Guenevere (....Whom God calls,... He equips......Press On Santorum!)
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To: citizen

Santorum could improve his chances by campaigning with the following idea:

Due to the FHA, Fannie and Freddie Bankruptcies of September, 2008, American home owners lost 30 % of the value of their homes. That is a 30 % cut in just one month. Home values are still down 30 %.

Thus, let us cut the total compensation to all elected Federal politicians, and their staffs by 30 %, and an additional 10 % cut to elected Federal politicians each year until Federal Spending is LESS THAN the average of the previous 2 years of Federal income.

BTW, since slightly less than half of the US House, and 2/3 of the US Senate are Millionaires, it will be a great opportunity for Congress to lead by example that EVERYONE should give up their “fair” share of the American Dream.

What better way can there be to demonstrate that America is truly a SUB-PRIME NATION?


25 posted on 04/04/2012 7:08:37 AM PDT by Graewoulf ((Dictator Baby-Doc Barack's obama"care" violates Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND U.S. Constitution.))
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To: Colonel_Flagg

Well said, Sir.


26 posted on 04/04/2012 7:12:56 AM PDT by LUV W (Obama's foot soldiers are repulsive human debris and the voting public is sick to death of them! *RL)
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To: SeekAndFind

I’ve drawn some allusions on here to Richard Nixon and the Southern Strategy, seeing as Obama is doing his level-best so scare working class whites over to the GOP with hoodie riots and rampaging hippies.

Then I watched Mitt’s speech from Milwaukee last night, and it dawned on me that “My God, this fellow actually IS Richard Nixon! The consummate used car salesman. He can talk out of all sides of his mouth at once”.


27 posted on 04/04/2012 7:34:22 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: SeekAndFind

I’ve drawn some allusions on here to Richard Nixon and the Southern Strategy, seeing as Obama is doing his level-best so scare working class whites over to the GOP with hoodie riots and rampaging hippies.

Then I watched Mitt’s speech from Milwaukee last night, and it dawned on me that “My God, this fellow actually IS Richard Nixon! The consummate used car salesman. He can talk out of all sides of his mouth at once”.


28 posted on 04/04/2012 7:35:07 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: traditional1

Been predicting a CW for a while. It’s back on the table again for me. I just hoped it could be avoided, but it can’t be.


29 posted on 04/04/2012 10:34:07 AM PDT by Mozilla (Rush: Romney is winning like a liberal...that is cause he is a liberal)
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To: Colonel_Flagg

No changes will be allowed in the party. The game is rigged. All the levers of power are controlled by the liberals of the party and will never be relinquished-—never.


30 posted on 04/04/2012 11:44:36 AM PDT by sarge83
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