Newt Gingrich's statement that he'd be voting for Mitt Romney if he's the nominee gave political cover to Tea Party conservatives like Rubio to make his Romney endorsement, and in a cascade effect, that will lead to more and more people climbing on the Romney bandwagon publicly when until recently they've been afraid to say publicly what they believed privately.
In Gingrich's case I can't blame him. He had no choice; if he said he'd vote against Romney in the fall if Romney wins the Republican nomination, he'd destroy his chances of winning the nomination himself and headlines would be telegraphed all over the world saying, “Former Republican speaker threatens to work against likely Republican nominee.”
The rest of us don't need to be publicly saying such things about future backing for Romney, except in those cases where some of us hold public political office and what we say on the internet could hurt us in our local, state or national positions. I realize that over at RedState, they're saying to get the most conservative Republican possible in the primary and vote Republican in the general election. That's not Free Republic's position, and I don't think it needs to be, or even should be.
Romney is not stupid. My guess is that the timing of the Rubio endorsement was planned to precede the upcoming GHW Bush endorsement to reduce the credibility of the inevitable conservative attacks on Romney for being a RINO. Even if that wasn't planned, it's what the effect will be.
Romney knows that he needs to get prominent right-wing conservatives to publicly endorse him now to take the wind out of both Santorum’s sails and those of Gingrich, and build up the aura of inevitability so a brokered convention not only doesn't happen but doesn't come close to happening. Even if Romney wins at a brokered convention, he would be badly damaged by the fight in ways that a conservative insurgent who went into the convention and won the battle would not be.
What's the narrative if Romney wins a brokered convention? People will say “he's not only the weakest Republican frontrunner since Leonard Wood in 1920 but now also a weak nominee because he doesn't have the enthusiastic backing of his own party's base,” which is more or less what Gingrich has been trying to point out.
What's the narrative if a conservative insurgent wins? “Candidate X (Gingrich, Santorum, or fill in the blank with some third name) managed to take on all of Mitt Romney's money and he still won! Maybe he can do that to Barack Obama this fall.” Bottom line: At least for now, let's try to avoid making pro-Romney comments or statements about backing him in the general election unless forced to do so. I don't blame Gingrich for what he said, and I probably don't blame Rubio since the alternatives for them would be worse. For most of us, we can stay neutral about what we'll do if Romney wins the nomination for at least a little while longer.
I agree with everything you said, and actually read it twice through - there were a lot of good thinking points there.
I would say, though, the 'I will support the nominee' statement is something everyone, even Paul, has said. and I think most people consider it that way - at least I hope so.
but I disagree with you about Rubio. He telegraphed a long time ago that he would be supporting romney in the Fla primary, when he came out with a very negative statement about Newt. He fell into line with Jeb bush's state machinery bigtime.
I think what is going now, is what I have read a few places variously, that there is going to be a major push now by the gop establishment to establish romney's inevitability, after his recent losses, through endorsements by major gop players... and rubio was just on that list.
romney was one of the first people to give to rubio's fledgling campaign, most likely because he understood the necessity of have many friends in florida, and sadly Rubio fell for it...
I am sure you are familiar with the verified information that 35 or 36 of romney's endorsements received various amounts of money from him prior to their endorsements.
I think one of the saddest things about all of this is the fact the freshman tea party class is proving just as corruptible and co-opted as all the other classes. A lot of them have already lost their way...
Many of us, including Free Republic itself, will have to make difficult decisions if Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee. Those are decisions I do not want to have to make, and the best way to avoid such problems is for Romney not to be the nominee. That's the best thing to work for in the short term.