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To: VinL
Newt Gingrich cannot win in Illinois with his external and internal polls with two days to go, with these kinds of numbers. However, Rick Santorum can (as the margin of undecided is still fairly high and volatile) prevail, within the margin of error.

However, I suppose it is up to many people in the GOP if they want to award this one to Romney as well by continuing to split the Conservative vote, or not, and have the RINO as the standard bearer of the Party, not to mention a moderate platform, and the whole thing come to a crashing defeat in November.

3 posted on 03/18/2012 10:20:17 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo (If Free Republic morphs into a supportive site for Romney, I'll conclude my 13 year participation.)
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To: AmericanInTokyo; napscoordinator
Romney's at 45. Santorum + Newt is at 42.

The result of what you advocate could be Romney at 49-51% and Santorum at 36-38% in Illinois based on multi-state polling which asked about a three-way race with Romney-Santorum-Paul only.

North Carolina is 31-27-20 (M-S-N), if Newt got out the most favorable expected split puts Mitt at 40, Santorum at 38. Santorum loses.

Alabama? Santorum is third, 34-28-33 (M-S-N), no Newt? Santorum loses 48-46.

If he's not within 2-3% of Romney on his own, he would lose even assuming the highest polled percentage, 57%, broke his way.

The way to stop Romney, if that's your aim, is for everyone to stay in and block him from an outright win.

119 posted on 03/19/2012 2:54:22 PM PDT by newzjunkey
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