[Teacher317]

"Russ, you ignorant slut"... Yes, maybe Iran COULD shut down the Strait for a few days... now tell me how they deal with the aftermath. Multiple carrier groups coming into the region, the US ramping up tank divisions in Iraq, waves of bombers coming in from multiple directions, large percentages of younger Iranians who want democratic changes helping out US Special Forces teams, etc etc etc.

But yes, they can crow about closing an important waterway for a few days... as long as they don't mind the massive consequences, the regime change, and the reputation for bringing back the US Armed Forces into the region.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Assume the US knows where the missiles are.

[Track9]

That was about my reaction. Not likely Iranian threats would last to long.

[EGPWS]

But yes, they can crow about closing an important waterway for a few days...

Keep in mind we have the "negotiator" in chief who very well could try and talk them into opening it up again.

THAT could take a few years....

[tanknetter]

"Russ, you ignorant slut"...

No kidding. First, there's no indication that these things are land-based (like Silkworms are). They're either ship/sub-launched, or air-launched.

So they need to get the shooting platforms into range of our CSGs. Not going to happen.

Back in the 1980s PBS did a really great NOVA episode called "The Battle for the Norwegian Sea". Basically a hit piece on the Reagan buildup and the emphasis on big-deck carriers. They interviewed John Lehman, then SecNav, and he pretty much destroyed the critics by pointing out that all their analyses were based on the assumption that the USN was going to try to sail it's carriers "up the Volga River" on the first day of a war.

Putting carriers into the Persian Gulf, or sailing them through the Straits of Taiwan are nice show-the-flag publicity moves, and in cases where we KNOW we own the pond (like Desert Storm and Iraqi freedom) prove useful for combat by shortening mission times/durations. But in a shooting war with either Iran or the ChiComs we're going to hold them back a ways and use them to reach out and touch the enemy from distance. Significant distance.

[bert]

After Bandar Shapur and Qom are ashes will the missiles continue to guard the straight?

[Williams]

Why do you think Iraq will let us bring in tank divisions to fight Iran?