Posted on 02/09/2012 7:37:13 AM PST by Seizethecarp
If you are not prepared to go to war, you cannot threaten that “nothing is off the table” as you search for diplomatic solutions.
Thus there are completed plans, updated daily, at Israeli military headquarters in Tel Aviv and at the Pentagon for carrying out attacks on Iranian facilities in a last-ditch effort to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Israel has a plan to go it alone. So does the United States. And there may even be a plan for the two countries to collaborate. On Dec. 20, the Joint Chiefs chairman, Gen. Martin Dempsey, told CNN: “We are examining a range of options” and “I am satisfied that the options that we are developing are evolving to a point that they would be executable if necessary.”
In any event, the plans exist, and they illustrate the difficulties in carrying out what some people think would be a simple operation.
For example, should Israel act alone, it would face the extraordinary problem of needing to refuel its bombers en route to targets about 1,000 miles away and refueling them again on the way back. That is why in the new Bipartisan Policy Center report, “Meeting the Challenge: Stopping the Clock,” former senator Charles S. Robb (D-Va.) and retired Air Force Gen. Charles F. Wald suggest that the United States provide Israel with three KC-135 refueling tankers.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
If the @$$hats in the Senate Select committee hadn’t disarmed Bush, we’d have a solution deployed.
...don’t ask....
There are three possible routes, all depend on refueling. They are the: northern route over Turkey and the Black Sea (longest) route, the central (shortest) route over Jordan and Iraq, and the southern Saudi route.
Overflight permission and stealth is the easiest on the northern route. That’s my bet.
The Israeli’s never predict publicly what they do militarily. All the Israeli talkers are talking now, predicting this or that. All of that buzz guarantees that the buzz won’t happen.
When they stop predicting, send earplugs to Iran.
I believe that the Israeli’s know an attack won’t succeed, they’ve figured that out and so have we.
Without regime change in Iran, Iran will make and detonate a nuke and then sell nuke weapon technology to the rest of the world.
That is why the correct strategy is to ruin their economy and create a revolt that will last.
When genuine revolt occurs, we will likely checkmate the Guards and their military.
This has always been true in the past when immediate retaliatory strike potential was minimal (Iraq 1980) or could be contained (Syria 2007).
Since 2007, Syria and Iran have packed Southern Lebanon with missiles specifically intended as a retaliatory threat that are capable of reaching Israeli population centers for the first time. Also, since 2007 Iran's own ballistic missiles have improved in range and accuracy to be able to threaten Israel when launched from Iran. These Iranian ballistic missiles (and Chinese supplied supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles) threaten US bases and allies in the Gulf with near instant retaliation as never before.
The result is that for the first time, extensive, impossible to conceal defensive measures must be taken immediately BEFORE an Israeli or US strike to protect vulnerable Israeli civilians and US and allied military bases and assets. In other words the Israeli population must be in their shelters with their gas masks on before the strike is launched on Iran, IMO.
I strongly disagree that Netanyahu has concluded that Iran can't be hit. I believe he has concluded that it must be hit and in the next few months. Israeli civilians are already reported to be cleaning out and preparing their home and community bomb shelters. There was one report yesterday, IIRC, that foreign embassy personnel were being given information on where their nearest community bomb shelter was located in Israel.
I disagree. The Israeli population is supposed to be able to reach a shelter in an absurdly short time [90 seconds in Tel Aviv], and I imagine they would have at least that much warning of a direct or proxy Iranian counterattack. They could sound the siren after the Israeli strike on nuclear sites became obvious to outside observers and still reach shelter before any counterattack. I doubt that any such terrorist counterstrike would be more destructive than the daily rocket/mortar attacks, or the terrorists would have been using that weapon regularly. Rather than being unable to attack without civilian preparations, it is more likely that the Israeli government is simply being played by the anti-Semitic communist in our White House, or they would have attacked years ago.
Enough damage must also be done to Iran's military to leave it unable to project power or to defend itself. This should be coupled with an effort to foment and support an overthrow of the regime by the public.
If there is any hope of avoiding such a military effort, then it requires the US and its allies to demonstrate its determination and willingness to use force by blasting Assad and his gang out of Syria. Ideally, we should target not just Syria's secret police and military but also Hezbollah and other terrorist groups in Syria and Lebanon.
The unguided rocket and mortar attacks to date have inflicted very few casualties and only in areas next the the north or south borders.
The ballistic missiles with guidance capable of hitting Tel Aviv that Iran has been smuggling in to Gaza and South Lebanon since 2006 have not been used yet but have been kept in reserve carefully hidden in residential structures that would guarantee collateral damage for the MSM to photograph in the event of a preemptive Israeli strike.
Russia has stationed its only aircraft carrier off of Syria to protect its Syrian naval basing rights and the Syrian regime (who buys Russian military hardware with Iranian oil money) from preemptive Western interference.
But all bets are off it the Syrian regime dissolves into chaos. Syrian missiles and bio/chem warheads could fall into the hands of Al Qaeda or Hamas or Hezbollah. It may be that the practice landing of NATO forces this week was practice for a landing to stabilize Syria after an Assad regime collapse. I don't think the Russians would interfere if such an intervention happened after a collapse.
Regarding the missile Hezbollah and Hamas missile stockpiles
in Hezbollistan and Gaza, it could well be that the Israelis make a preemptive attack on those stockpiles before attempting an Iranian preemptive attack.
By de-fanging the Iranian's retaliatory threat posed by Hezbollah and Hamas, Israel would “only” have to handle incoming missiles coming from Iran when they attacked Iran rather then missiles coming from three directions (north, south and east) as Iran is currently threatening.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2844475/posts
Iran says they will launch total war if Israel goes after Syria or Hezbollah, but I don't find that credible.
Iran pledges ‘total war’? I hope that’s a promise, because I don’t think we remember what that looks like anymore, and for some stupid reason people have to actually experience it to bring all that back to them.
By all means - total war with Iran.
I just wish SOMEBODY would take this man at his word and shower the place with conventional ballistic missiles, B-52 dropped bombs, etc. Do it for the next six months and then send folks in to sift the rubble.
After 30 days of it in GW I, Iraqi soldiers were surrendering to CNN crews.
The Russians can then be given the courtesy of notice, a bit of diplomatic flattery, and an opportunity to join the humanitarian effort in Syria. This should be coupled with an assurance that in return for full cooperation and continued good behavior, the West will not seek to oust them from their Syrian base.
If the Russians do not go along, then have a force of our naval combatants shadow their vessels and act like cops assigned to watch local delinquents. The Russians will then behave themselves and likely not raise a peep.
“I strongly disagree that Netanyahu has concluded that Iran can’t be hit.”
I didn’t say otherwise, Israel clearly knows they can hit Iran. But, to what effect?
Israel knows they can’t stop the Iran nuke program and that an attack only unifies the Iranian people behind the mullahs and delays the regime change that really could stop the nuke program.
Israel lives every day under a greater threat than Iran can ever deliver and are constantly ready to retaliate. The Iran buzz is a sideshow to goad America into attacking Iran or at least ratcheting up the economic sanctions and its working.
I disagree. The Israeli attacks on Iraq and Syria did not unify their imprisoned people behind those regimes.
IMO claims that an Israeli attack would only set the Iranian program back three years are ludicrous.
I would predict that the long-term result of an Israeli attack on Iran would be the same as their attacks on Iraq and Syria and same as the fate of the Qaddafi regime after they gave up their nukes in fear after Bush took down Iraq. That result would be regime change after failure to obtain nuclear umbrella self-protection.
The politics of each nation is so varied that it’s difficult to make comparisons between dictatorships.
Iraq had a very savvy and brutal strongman that was well grounded with the tribes. Syria has a very large and capable army, controlled by the Alawites and up until now has had an effective retaliation against dissent.
The Syrian Army and the Asad dictatorship would not be so strong without the hatred of Israel.
The Iraqi and Syrian locals were unified by fear. The Israeli attack in Iraq was so limited that the people didn’t really care. The Syrians are generally united against Israel anyway.
It is unlikely that an Israeli attack would set back the Iranians at all, they have gone to ground years ago with anything that mattered.
Israel can pick away away at the periphery of their nuke program that’s all. Unlikely that they will attack Natanz or Bushehr with the thousands of Russian technicians that work there.
Containment and regime change are the only tactics with traction long term.
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