If I recall the rules correctly, delegates who are pledged to one candidate must vote for that candidate on the first ballot. On the second ballot the candidate can direct their delegates to cast their vote for the candidate of the candidates choice. IOW Gingrich could direct his delegates to vote for Santorum and vice-versa. I believe on the third ballot all delegates are released from the pledges and can vote for the candidate of their own choice.
I do know that at some point the delegates are all freed from their candidates and in such a case as that, Romney would be favored only because he is connected to the GOP-E and he also has the money to buy the delegates who are not all that committed to defeating him.
So if the convention is brokered, then Romney will most likely walk away from the convention with the nomination.
It is my understanding that Ron Paul people are surreptitiously signing up to be delegates for the other candidates. If they succeed in getting enough Ron Paul supporters in the ranks of the other candidates, Ron Paul could win this thing on the third ballot.
So, IMHO, a brokered convention is not a good idea. I don't think either Gingich or Santorum will walk away from a brokered convention with anything other than a VP slot. It's going to be Romney, or Christie or Jeb Bush or some other establishment GOP sell out.
Wouldn’t Newt and Rick prevail on the second ballot in that case? If their delegates combined totalled more than Romney’s, then when one directs theirs to vote for the other guy, they should be in like Flynn.
What is the enforcement mechanism to make the delegates vote for who they’re “supposed” to? Are their votes just not counted if they stray off, and it’s just a formality?
By the way, the delegates aren’t “pledged” in every state, so even on the first ballot some can vote for whoever they want to. I think that the candidates have some say in picking which of their delegates get to go to the convention though, so one hopes they would have some certainty they were true believers. But there is evidence the Ron Paul people are lying about who they support to get in as delegates.
Here is some info on the Ron Paul delegate-stealing plan:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2843327/posts