You’re wrong!!! Paul only does well in “Caucus-type” settings where many people work and have family obligations and can’t get out to a caucus at 7:30 at night for 3 hours, but, his supporters are bused in and become “Iowans” for a day. He gets beat like a drum in a real Primary.
The Iowa experience has been that Paul underperforms at caucuses compared to his straw votes - and opinion poll - strength.
I am amazed by the amount of support he has and some of them are very good people and not kooks.