If you regress only on ‘10 US House vote, GOP gains a seat.
But that may be a mistake.
It looks like 25 safe seats for the Dems, another 7 likely.
10 safe seats for the GOP, another 4 likely.
Remaining 7:
West Garden Grove: US House, AG, Gov a tie for GOP
East Ventura:did vote GOP in US House, Senate, Atty Gen
Dem in Treasurer, Controller, President, Gov, Party ID
Kings: Same
Merced: Same
San Luis Obispo-Santa Barbara: Same
Sacramento County: House, Sen, AG, PID for GOP
Stanislaus: House, Sen, AG, Gov for GOP (post story says GOP clearly favored here).
CA demographics are changing daily in the Rat’s favor. The GOP will lose at least 5 seats (maybe closer to 10) between Illinois and California.
The GOP will gain a few here and there. But in most large states (Florida, Texas, Ohio, PA), they’re spread pretty thin after their 2010 gains. They will have to concentrate on strengthening their marginal districts, rather than creating new GOP districts.
Redistricting will be a wash.