Nobody wants to waste weeks or months of their lives and millions of dollars only to, in the end, watch Sarah Palin waltz away with the nomination and the White House. All the actual polls (not the push-polls or "weighted" polls that say otherwise) have shown for the last five (5) months that Sarah Palin is the odds-on favorite when you assume (correctly) that the GOP/Tea Party voter bloc represents at least 45% of the 2012 electorate.
Add in whatever will be the percentage of Blue Dogs, Independents and Reagan Democrats, and there remain not enough votes for O'Bungwad to win. Neither does any alternate GOP candidate stand a real chance for the nomination.
The only "variable" is whether or not Sarah decides to run. SHE HAS ALREADY DECIDED, it's just too early, in her estimation, to announce this yet.
Palin 2012, winning from the lead.
;^\
Yours is the most likely scenario. Palin has the strongest case that she’s currently the “top Republican”. And my 1st choice is Ron Paul.