Someone needs to tell this genius that NO incumbant president has EVER won reelection when the unemployment rate is above 8%. Zero, zip, nada.
You mean no incumbent other than FDR, twice - right?
For a more modern comparison, the unemployment rate was actually the same on election day 1984 from where it was when Reagan initially assumed office - 7.2%, and it had climbed to as high as (I think) 11% or so. I think if Obama can keep it below 8.5% considering it was almost 8% when he assumed office, he's probably still the favorite, and if he can somehow manage to get it below 8%, then he's going to be tough to beat.