We have to defend three seats (NV, ME, MA).
In MA, dems won every seat this year, I doubt Scott can survive there. Ensign in NV with her cheating and possible tax fraud scandal is gone too in 2012. If GOP managed to lose in Nevada against Reid this year, Ensign or new GOP nominee is having a real fight in 2012. This is a 50-50 fight.
ME is in play if some local version of O’Donnell is nominated.
So, 3 GOP seats are in grave danger.
On the plus side, if there is a strong GOP candidate in NY,NJ,WI,NM I think those seats are in play. Especially Menendez is widely despised and with a GOP year, there is a decent chance of GOP win.
My prediction is that we lose 2 out of 3 GOP seats (MA, ME, NV), but win FL, MO, ND, OH, MI, NE, NJ,NM,WI.
That would be a net gain of 7 and little room for mistakes.
Ensign in NV with her cheating and possible tax fraud scandal is gone too in 2012.
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Ensign is a dude, not a her.