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Financial Markets and Economic Crash, the Next Leg Down Will be Worse
Market Oracle ^

Posted on 05/30/2009 5:03:53 AM PDT by FromLori

Collapsing home prices and credit markets continue to put downward pressure on consumer spending, forcing the Federal Reserve to take even more radical action to revive the economy. Last week, Fed chief Ben Bernanke raised the prospect of further monetizing the debt by purchasing more than the $1.75 trillion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) already committed. The announcement sent shock-waves through the currency markets where skittish traders have joined doomsayers in predicting tough times ahead for the dollar. Foreign central banks have been gobbling up US debt at an impressive pace, adding another $60 billion in the last three weeks alone. That's more than enough to cover the current account deficit and put the greenback on solid ground for the time-being. But with fiscal deficits ballooning to $3 trillion in the next year alone, dwindling foreign investment won't be enough to keep the dollar afloat. Bernanke will be forced to either raise interest rates or let the dollar fall hard.

(Excerpt) Read more at marketoracle.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 05/30/2009 5:03:53 AM PDT by FromLori
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To: FromLori
He'd like nothing more than to see the dollar tumble and reset at a lower rate. That would reduce the debt-load for homeowners and businesses and send consumers racing back to the shopping malls and auto showrooms. Perception management is a big part of stimulating the economy.

How does that reduce the debt-load. If my dollar is weaker how that make my mortgage payment lower?

2 posted on 05/30/2009 5:14:29 AM PDT by raybbr (It's going to get a lot worse now that the anchor babies are voting!)
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To: raybbr

It doesn’t...it makes the value of the mortgage less.


3 posted on 05/30/2009 5:22:03 AM PDT by rightwingextremist1776
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To: rightwingextremist1776
It doesn’t...it makes the value of the mortgage less.

Not in the eyes of my bank. It still have to pay the same amount.

These moves, like all recent moves, are designed to prop up the institutions that pushed all this cheap debt on us - not us.

I have over 100% equity in our house but that is dwindling. I doubt we will ever get to zero equity but a total collapse would bring us close.

4 posted on 05/30/2009 5:24:50 AM PDT by raybbr (It's going to get a lot worse now that the anchor babies are voting!)
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To: raybbr

HUGE ‘duh’ factor here is being ignored.
Historically, home mortgages are to be no more than 3X earnings.
ANYBODY checked out personal incomes, lately?


5 posted on 05/30/2009 5:27:29 AM PDT by Flintlock
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To: FromLori
"Bernanke will be forced to either raise interest rates or let the dollar fall hard."

And either decision spells doom, a devastation that could have been entirely avoided had the usurper Obama not thrown away trillions in debt, PLUS increasing the size and cost of government and government social programs, and bailing out GM and Chrysler and his commie unions.

Raising interest rates will likey be the route Obama will choose in a too late attempt to reverse the damage he has done. Why? because it will hurt the "rich" (working middle class) more than it will hurt the non-working welfare class.

But the damage to the financial markets from the further collapsing of the housing market will cause Obama's efforts to save face fail miserably, and the dollar will fall hard anyway as Obama desperately increases debt to bail out banks, but will be unable to do so in the amounts needed to brevent widespread bank failures, and the runs on them which are inevitable.

6 posted on 05/30/2009 5:37:55 AM PDT by Nathan Zachary
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To: raybbr
Not in the eyes of my bank. It still have to pay the same amount.

As the value of the dollar goes down (aka "inflation") wages go up. (In fact, my first employer out of college had the policy of dividing my raise into "adjustment for inflation" and "merit raise").

The total number of dollars you owe on the mortgage doesn't change, but as the number of dollars you bring home increase it becomes much easier to pay that mortgage.

We'd probably all be better off to start thinking of value amounts in terms of ounces of gold, rather than fiat currency. The usefulness of fiat money then becomes its use to move gold without physically moving it.

7 posted on 05/30/2009 5:38:42 AM PDT by The Duke (I have met the enemy, and he is named 'Apathy'!)
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To: raybbr
"Not in the eyes of my bank. It still have to pay the same amount."

Exactly. Anyone thinking wages will go up to compensate for a devalued dollar is daydreaming. That will happen at a much slower rate and take decades to occur, and that is assuming the economy will return to a stable, normal rate of growth, which isn't likely at all.

8 posted on 05/30/2009 5:42:35 AM PDT by Nathan Zachary
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To: Nathan Zachary

Yes the middle class are really going to take it hard. That housing recovery thing is looking very grim and those baloney modifications we have to pay for well thats not working out either...

http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/?fpn=the%20new%20mortgage%20modification%20system%20fails

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/CreditCardSmarts/banks-have-declared-war-on-you.aspx


9 posted on 05/30/2009 5:44:35 AM PDT by FromLori (FromLori)
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To: FromLori
“The economy is in the grip of deflation. Commercial banks are stockpiling excess reserves (more than $850 billion in less than a year) to prepare for future downgrades, write-offs, defaults and foreclosures. That's deflation. Consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending; driving, eating out, shopping, vacations, hotels, air travel. More deflation. Businesses are laying off employees, slashing inventory, abandoning plans for expansion or reinvestment. More deflation. Banks are trimming credit lines, calling in loans and raising standards for mortgages, credit cards and commercial real estate. Still more deflation. Bernanke has opened the liquidity valves to full-blast, but consumers are backing off; they're too mired in debt to borrow, so the money sits idle in bank vaults while the economy continues to slump.”

An excellent article. Thanks for posting.

But everything in the above quote indicates not actual deflation but the setup for eventual deflation. Currently, prices are not tumbling and the purchasing power of the dollar is not increasing. The creeping increase cost of oil is an indication of both a devalued dollar and the future increased cost of production. That is inflation.

I'd say rather that what is happening is that anyone who is not wearing rose-colored glasses sees a major economic crisis in the next 12 months and they are preparing.

While the federal government continues to make the age-old mistake of making money and making it available to stave off the inevitable pain, people are holding on to that money.

Excuse the analogy, but it is like saving up all your dope for a huge binge. When the people start spending and when the newly printed fiat money hits circulation, the euphoria of temporary deflation will be so quickly bypassed that our economy will smash directly into hangover and withdrawal. The option is to quit the easy-money addiction and go through the pain of adjusting to realistic economic growth, not manufactured booms.

10 posted on 05/30/2009 5:50:53 AM PDT by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (The most dangerous fascists are those with a warm smile and soothing voice.)
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To: The Duke
"We'd probably all be better off to start thinking of value amounts in terms of ounces of gold, rather than fiat currency. The usefulness of fiat money then becomes its use to move gold without physically moving it."

Yet another daydream. The government will confiscate gold just like they did in the thirties, making it illegal for anyone to own gold and forcing people to turn in gold for treasury bills.

Why nobody remembers this is baffling, probably because gold resellers and doing good business right now and don't want anyone to know this.

11 posted on 05/30/2009 5:51:55 AM PDT by Nathan Zachary
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To: FromLori

Bump for later read.


12 posted on 05/30/2009 5:59:32 AM PDT by khnyny ("The demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots.")
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To: The Duke
The total number of dollars you owe on the mortgage doesn't change, but as the number of dollars you bring home increase it becomes much easier to pay that mortgage.

If every other costs is rising, as a percent, the mortgage is still the same to you.

13 posted on 05/30/2009 6:03:25 AM PDT by central_va (www.15thVirginia.org Co. C, Patrick Henry Rifles)
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To: raybbr
It doesn't make the payment less - it makes the same payments worth less as the dollar becomes more worthless. If pay were to go up to offset the devalued dollar so you had enough money to be able to pay the extra dollars that everything is going to cost, then you would be in great shape with your mortgage because it is fixed at a dollar amount and those dollars would be a smaller percentage of your pay; if you don't get that raise (most likely scenario) then your mortgage will be the least of your worries as it's hard to find a wheelbarrow of money when you need it in order to buy a loaf of bread.
14 posted on 05/30/2009 6:04:08 AM PDT by trebb ("I am the way... no one comes to the Father, but by me..." - Jesus in John 14:6 (RSV))
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To: Flintlock

3 times 0 = ?


15 posted on 05/30/2009 6:05:34 AM PDT by mefistofelerevised
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To: FromLori
You betcha.

How the media can so blatantly deceive the public by claiming Obama's "stimulus" is working, that the economy is recovering is criminal.

The stock markets certainly do not reflect that at all. And with so many nervous investors ready to pull the trigger in fear of a collapsing dollar, there are a lot of companies out there with stocks that have no where to go but bankrupt.

16 posted on 05/30/2009 6:17:13 AM PDT by Nathan Zachary
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To: Nathan Zachary

Your best investment: Guns and ammo.


17 posted on 05/30/2009 6:17:31 AM PDT by Bob Mc
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To: Nathan Zachary

That is how I view it also. I know many do not like the gloom and doom of the truth but I see the communist media as sucking them in to get their last dime before it all goes into the worse depression we have ever had so I just try to find sources that tell the truth.


18 posted on 05/30/2009 6:19:48 AM PDT by FromLori (FromLori)
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To: Bob Mc
"Your best investment: Guns and ammo."

I wouldn't say "best". An very important and necessary one to be sure, but you can't eat your guns and ammo.

You can't barter your guns and ammo for food that isn't available either.

I'd say your best investments are a good store of primary staple foods, rice, flour, sugar, rolled oats etc. , a rototiller, plenty of seeds, some fertilizer, canning equipment, jars, and some livestock; a few chickens, a breeding pair of goats, or a couple pregnant cows if you have the space, and gasoline, gasoline preservatives, brewing equipment, distilling equipment and supplies, good 1930's small tractor like a miniapolis Moline (you'll eventually run out of gas and need to burn alcohol)

19 posted on 05/30/2009 6:35:11 AM PDT by Nathan Zachary
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