Why Obama is toast

http://seanmalstrom.wordpress.com/ ^ | Sean Malstrom

[Truthsearcher]

...I still think McCain will win the election and do so by a larger margin than Bush did in 2004. When this happens, a hurricane of outrage will be unleashed at the political analysis business, mostly the pollsters. People will demand to know how they could be so off. In other words, the future of the political analysis business will be destroyed as their reputation will become destroyed in the upcoming days....

[HerrBlucher]

Obama’s megalomania knows no bounds, just the idea of possibly become president makes him psychotic and delusional. What a nutball!

[Crimson Elephant]

I had not thought of the Acorn angle being more about influencing pollsters moreso than stealing votes. Interesting.

Also, with all these polls, why is there not a SINGLE poll that seems to be right leaning? I find it hard to believe the GOP or a right leaning think tank hasn’t created a public polling outfit that would track a more reasonable party ID. If nothing else just for shadow ops.

IF McCain and Palin can flip PA, it could actually be a shift that will hold for a couple of election cycles. After all, Santorum got elected there at one time, and Kentucky and WVA have stayed right leaning after Bush flipped them.

Eventually the Dems may actually flip VA or CO or even FL..over time...so long term the GOP needs a counter. I think Michigan is another long term target as Detroit dies.

[blasater1960]

....."business will be destroyed"

When the Obaminals go on a rampage.

[johncocktoasten]

great read. Looking at the counties where McCain/Palin have been campaigning, he’s right, mainly democrat areas.

Meanwhile, Obama goes back to DC for another rally there. If he can’t get those folks jazzed, then he is really screwed.

This is going to be a special day in American history. We will see, not only the vanquishing of the left, but the destruction of the drive by media.

A McCain Landslide like the one depicted in the article, will lay bare the American People’s absolute contempt for the media and their shameless advocacy.

One thing the author doesn’t cover, but I have found analysing Nevada and Florida early vote returns and the exit polls associated, is that Obama is consistently UNDERPERFORMING his Party ID differential by 5 or 6%. That means with a close to even Party ID in the electorate today, he is going to get run into the ditch. God forbid this silent majority show up and Republicans eke out a +1 or +2 in Party ID.

Colorado is dead even on party ID and the overall vote returns are Dems +28000 ballots with over 1.6 million votes cast. With similar underperformance, McCain should keep CO. And I know the GOTV is humping it out there to make it happen.

Virginia is another state that will remain reliably republican. The “new” vote is pretty evenly disbursed across all areas of the state. Party ID is Dem +2 in the latest survey usa showing obama up 4%, in 2006 the party id was republicans +3. In 2004 the party ID was Republicans +4.

With Virginia, Colorado, and PA in McCain’s hands, Obama will have to cry on the Oprah’s shoulders.

[word_warrior_bob]

Best article of the election season bar none.

Not just because it echoes all of my analysis this season ; ) but it is compelling reading, it’s long but goes by like a breeze.

MUST READ, especially if you’re nervous about the election.

[bray]

Great read and very well documented. Everything we suspect about garbage samples and formulas.

Pray for McCain and Our Troops

[perfect_rovian_storm]

I have no idea. I just found the article here and clicked on it, thinking it would be your average, shallow, analysis.

Whoever he is, he’s got his finger on this race as far as I can tell. And he doesn’t seem to be emotionally invested in it.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

The article is REALLY worth a read.

[Allegra]

In other words, the future of the political analysis business will be destroyed as their reputation will become destroyed in the upcoming days....

From Sean's keyboard to God's ears, I pray.

And the media, too...

I'm as nervous as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs today.

And I'm not the only one.

[workerbee]

It is said that at the end of a presidential campaign, the candidate who is campaigning on the enemy’s turf in the final days becomes president. The stories that say “Obama is campaigning in final days in Bush states’ is getting it wrong, of course. Obama has no choice but to campaign in Bush states since there is no other way for him to get to 270. McCain can lose some Bush states and still win. In political analysis, novices measure the election by states. Experts do it by counties. The counties McCain and Palin are visiting, be it Pennslyvania or even Ohio, are democrat counties meaning they went for Kerry the other time. Obama keeps staying in safe urban areas and other Democrat strongholds. Obama’s strategy doesn’t appear aggressive to me (he appears to be getting angry, even emotionally melting down. Such as when he got angry when trick-or-treating. Even today, he gave McCain the middle finger). When we look at the candidates themselves, we see McCain confident and laughing and Obama… being a little theatrical (”I will change the world!”).

[Aria]

That was quite interesting and I think the guy knows his stuff.

I’ve often thought that I would love to watch Sarah’s family for at least the next 4 years and this guy even touched on that.

All in all a very thorough, interesting and I hope correct article.

[1035rep]

Wonderful story!

[bray]

This guy is not part of the echo chamber so doesn’t care what other pundiots think of him. He has it nailed and McCain/Palin are going to win this thing. The polls are nothing more than another echo chamber for pollsters.

Pray for McCuda and Our Troops

[rashley]

The article is fascinating. You really should read it. Your guesses as to what’s in the article don’t begin to capture the writer’s points, and in fact, are wrong.

[workerbee]

This part was just too delicious and I pray the author is right:

Pennslyvania has been grossly misreported on this election cycle. During the Democrat primary, union bosses approached Hillary Clinton and said, “Promise us you will not put Obama as your Veep and you will have our support.” The moment Obama become the nominee was when he lost Pennslyvania. Obama has been spending money like a drunken sailor in the state, blasting the state full of advertising, but it isn’t working. The famous Philly machine won’t be at Obama’s disposal as the governor, Rendell, is a Clinton supporter , and he has been hinting at Pennslyvania going red by the mysterious leak of the Obama internal campaign poll of PA being +2 a couple of weeks ago and publicly asking Obama to come back to the state as well as saying that things are ‘tightening’ there. The evidence that PA is going red should be with how the safe Democrat seats are becoming suddenly competitive. Rendell is a Democrat and doesn’t want to lose house seats which is another reason to ask Obama to come back.

Pennslyvania is not a New England state, it is a mid-atlantic state. It is mostly a rural state. Obama likely thought Philly and Pittsburgh would be enough to carry the state (Obama is relying on cities to swing entire states his way). But Kerry could barely hold the state even with the Philly machine and the Democrat base on his side. And McCain and Palin are far more popular, campaign wise, than Bush and Cheney were in 2004.

[fortheDeclaration]

A McCain Landslide like the one depicted in the article, will lay bare the American People’s absolute contempt for the media and their shameless advocacy.

Amen!

Now, will someone tell me where all of this support for Obama is?

I don't see it in the early voting!

Are the polls assuming a low GOP turnout?

[fortheDeclaration]

A McCain Landslide like the one depicted in the article, will lay bare the American People’s absolute contempt for the media and their shameless advocacy.

Amen!

Now, will someone tell me where all of this support for Obama is?

I don't see it in the early voting!

Are the polls assuming a low GOP turnout?

[Covenantor]

"Very long and interesting read

Indeed.

[diamond6]

Great article..........but very long. I’ll read the rest tomorrow.........yawn.

[Cap Huff]

Ping . . .

A little bit of toast to go with you election morning coffee.