Team McCain conference call: polling

Hot Air ^ | OCTOBER 31, 2008 | ED MORRISSEY

[RobinMasters]

With a mere four days left, the polls have begun to tighten in the presidential race. Pennsylvania appears within the margin of error, and a last-minute surprise could turn the race in McCain’s favor — or so they would like to think. Team McCain held a press conference today with campaign leaders Rick Davis, pollster Bill McInturff, Mike DuHaime and Christian Ferry to discuss the latest in national and state polling.

Davis says we’re witnessing one of the greatest comebacks in political history, or at least since McCain won the primaries. Crowds are huge, and energy is high. Sarah Palin is electrifying crowds and bringing people back into the game. They feel they have the momentum, increasing polling in every battleground state over the past week, and have gotten past the effect of the financial collapse.

Team McCain says they have Iowa as a dead heat, and Obama seems to confirm that. He’s going back to Iowa over the weekend. If Iowa was not in play, Obama wouldn’t bother. Team McCain seems to believe that more than a few Obama states may be heading back into play.

McInturff says that intensity is increasing among core Republican coalitions, and that has brought a narrowing of the gap in party identification. He predicts a final gap of 3-5 points. McCain has always run ahead of party ID, and they see this as a big plus. He also sees Obama’s numbers dropping in battleground states, and thinks Obama will have a tough time getting to 50%.

Turnout models show a big response from Republicans as well as Democrats. He thinks this will be closer to 2004 than 2000, and it may improve even more over the weekend. McInturff says that this will be a close election, but that McCain is very much in it.

On the GOTV efforts, they say that they have spent more money on turnout in the past two months than any other election. The RNC’s ability to raise money has given the GOP parity on GOTV and in advertising. Their turnout efforts grow week-on-week, and may be the most underreported aspect of the campaign. The microtargeting, VOIP efforts, and analytical models continues to improve the GOTV efforts. They’ve made 5.3 million targeted calls and doorknocks in the past week, and 1.3 million yesterday, to persuadable voters, and 24 million to date. That’s a major improvement over 2004 and 2006, and they expect to make 17 million more in the next 72 hours.

On absentee and early voting, they are seeing big increases in the number, but not much different in the party-ID gap. In Florida, McCain has an advantage in the total number of both. Nevada has about the same breakout as it did in 2004. Pennsylvania gave the GOP a lead on absentee ballots, 56-44, and younger voters are in roughly the same proportion as they had been before. New Democratic registrants this year actually make up a somewhat lower proportion of early voters in PA.

They polled the viewers of the Obamamercial to see whether it convinced people to vote for him. They claim that the “less likelies” slightly outpolled the “more likelies”. Team McCain also noted that the money they spent on that infomercial would have bought a week’s worth of advertising in all of the battleground states.

The McCain campaign says they will outspend Obama over the next 72 hours by $10 million. If so, that would be a remarkable change.

[No Dems 2004]

I sure hope this is true because the latest public polls sure don’t give us much hope.

[o2bfree]

>McCain shoulda went at Obama’s pro-terrorist sympathies months ago!!!

Its a long distance race - all that matters is the finish. Obama has peaked too early and the RATS know it!!!

[xkaydet65]

Has the old naval aviator gotten inside Obama’s OODA Loop again? If so I couldn’t think of a better time.

[WHBates]

"Did anyone know if such strategy has been used before, and to what result?

I don't know if it's a proven strategy but it was forced by the disparity in money available. What you do in a war is improvise when faced with difficult odds. That it will work or not is probably of minor consideration when it was the only option available.

[HuzzahSnyper]

never underestimate an old war veteran :)

we will win on tuesday. Bank on it.

[Paleo Conservative]

Poor form to use GOTV and NOT define it. What the HELL is GOTV?

ROTFLMAO!

[1-Eagle]

Even with Ross Perot sapping 18% of the fiscal conservatives Dole outperformed the polls by as much as 21%, and ended up losing by only 7% on popular vote in '96. This time around is much different. There is no significant 3rd party interference and the enthusiasm is at a level consistent with 1980.

I think Democrats have a lot to worry about.

Considering the ACORN fraud and the massive free PR provided by a slanted media it will speak volumes about our country if McCain/Palin win this thing even by the slightest of margins. If they win big, and I think that is certainly possible, it will be a total refutation of socialism and the propaganda machine that tried to force it down our throats, and 'race card politics.'

[longtermmemmory]

Frank Luntz on Oreily just announce he is going to use his focus group to see how OBAMA does in his first 100 days.

bias?

dead on.

only saw it b/c surfing.

tonights news is useless.

[longtermmemmory]

BINGO!

[FastCoyote]

“In other words, it could well be that Obama’s fantastic spending up to the present has been, well, wasted.”

In locker room terms it is expressed as “he shot his wad too soon”. Obama has no new ad material that hasn’t been pulverised to death. But at the last moment we’ve got everything from socialist, to redistributionist, to Ayers, Odinga, Kalife (sp?), Biden etc. to throw at the electorate. I just hope it is enough.

[LegalEagle61]

What the HELL is GOTV?

Get Out The Vote!

[LibLieSlayer]

barnes is an inside the beltway super rino and Charles is a dim... pro abortion, anti Second Amendment, pro embryonic stem cell dim posing as a Conservative writer.

LLS

[The Wizard]

I caught that remark,too.....here’s hoping Frank won’t get the chance

[LegalEagle61]

Just got this in email:

To: Interested Parties
From: Rick Davis, Campaign Manager
Date: October 31, 2008
RE: The Final Push
The State of the Campaign

If your television is tuned to cable news as frequently as ours are here at campaign headquarters, you have seen the pundits say John McCain and his campaign are done. And, if you've followed this race since the beginning, this is clearly a song you've heard before. I wanted to take some time today to give you some insight on the state of the race as we see it.

An AP poll released this morning revealed a very telling fact: ONE out of every SEVEN voters is undecided. That means, if 130 million voters turn out on Tuesday, 18.5 million of them have yet to make up their mind. With that many votes on the table and the tremendous movement we've seen in this race, I believe we are in a very competitive campaign.

Here's why:

All the major polls have shown a tightening in the race and a significant narrowing of the numbers. In John McCain's typical pattern, he is closing strong and surprising the pundits. We believe this race is winnable, and if the trajectory continues, we will surpass the 270 Electoral votes needed on Election Night.

National Polls: Major polls last week showed John McCain trailing by double-digit margins - but by the middle of this week, we were within the margin of error on four national tracking surveys. In fact, the Gallup national tracking survey showed the race in a virtual tie 2 days this week.

State Polls:

Iowa - Our numbers in Iowa have seen a tremendous surge in the past 10 days. We took Obama's lead from the double digits to a very close race. That is why you see Barack Obama visiting the state in the final days, trying to stem his losses. It is too little, too late. Like many other Midwestern states, Iowa is moving swiftly into McCain's column.

The Southwest - It is no secret that Republican candidates in the Southwest have to focus on winning over enough Latino and Hispanic voters in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado to carry them to victory. John McCain has overcome challenges Republicans face, and has made up tremendous ground in these states with these voters. For these voters, the choice has become clear, and you have seen a big change in the numbers. John McCain is now winning enough voters to perform within the margin of error - putting these states within reach.

Colorado - Barack Obama tried to outspend our campaign in Colorado during the early weeks of October and finish off our candidate in Colorado. However, after our visit early this week, we saw a tremendous rebound in our poll position, and Colorado is back on the map.

Ohio and Pennsylvania - Everyone knows that vote rich Ohio and Pennsylvania will be key battlegrounds for this election. Between the two: 41 electoral votes and no candidate has gotten to the White House without Ohio. Senator McCain and Governor Palin have been campaigning non-stop in these key battleground states and tonight Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has pumped up our campaign at a rally in Columbus. Our position in these states is strong and undecided voters continue to have a very favorable impression of our candidate.

Obama campaign faces tremendous structural challenges in the final days of this campaign

Obama has a challenge hitting 50%: Barack Obama has not reached the 50% threshold in almost any the battleground state. He consistently is performing in the 45-48% range. When we look closely at the primary votes, we see a history of a candidate whose Election Day performance is often at or behind his final polling numbers. If this is true, our surge will leave Obama with even or under 50% of the vote on Election Day.

Early Vote: The Obama campaign has promised that their early vote and absentee efforts will change the composition of the electorate. They have sold the press on a story that first time voters will turn out in droves this election cycle. Again, the facts undermine their argument. In our analysis of early voting and absentee votes to date: The composition of the electorate has not changed significantly and most folks who have voted early are high propensity voters who would have voted regardless of the high interest in this campaign.

Expanding the Field: Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn't have the votes to win.

The Final Barnstorm

On Monday, we will have a 14 state rally with our candidates crisscrossing the country trying to turn out our voters and sway the final undecided voters. Governor Palin will hit Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and Alaska in the final day of campaigning, while Senator McCain will travel from Tampa, Florida, to Virginia, then Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and finish the night in Prescott, Arizona. The enthusiasm and excitement we generate on Monday will be the electricity that powers our "Get Out the Vote" efforts on Tuesday.

On the Ground

Our field organization has tremendous energy and is out-performing the Bush campaign at the same time in 2004. This week our field organization crossed a huge threshold and began reaching more than one million voters per day, and by week's end will have contacted more than 5 million voters. Our phone centers are full and our rate of voter contact is significantly out-pacing the Bush campaign in 2004. We have the resources to do the voter contact necessary to support the surge we are seeing in our polling with old fashioned grassroots outreach.

On the Airwaves

In the final days of the campaign, our television presence will be bigger and broader than the Obama campaign's presence. The full Republican effort - the RNC's Independent Expenditure and the McCain campaign will out-buy Barack Obama and the Democrats by just about 10 million dollars.

In short: the McCain campaign is surging in the final 72 hours. Our grassroots campaign is vibrant and communicating to voters in a very powerful way. Our television presence is strong. And, we have a secret ingredient - A candidate who will never quit and who will never stop fighting for you and for your families.

In these final hours, Senator McCain and Governor Palin are counting on you - they are counting on you to knock on doors, to make turnout calls, to contact your friends and neighbors. Get our voters to the polls and help John McCain fight for your and for our country. This is our last mission on behalf of John McCain and I have no doubt I can count on your effort and energy to carry us across the line to victory.

[LibLieSlayer]

Look up the last hour of the Schnitt Show and listen to the woman caller that was paid $100.00 to be part of luntz's focus group... and she said he was solidly in the tank for obama and that he skewed questions and coerced answers. Schnitt is investigating. She has documentation to back up her story.

LLS

[bray]

Send in everything you can afford for this last push. You can make a difference to the Republic. We are going to win this thing for the Gipper.

Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops

[longtermmemmory]

AAHH my eyes, whorealdo was on there.

he was defending illegal aliens, (same as his 20/20 days)

click before oreily said some thing stupid.

AHHH michael moore on msnbc
did say call all on you cell phone list.

click!!

hmmm GOOD IDEA FOLKS, CALL EVERYONE ON YOUR CELL PHONE LIST!!!.

[meyer]

WHAT THE FREAK was he waiting for??????

Aim small, miss small. And perhaps a bit of stumbling as well.

[word_warrior_bob]

Our mojo is strong, liberals are sucking their thumbs in fear. They hear the stampeding of elephants in the distance, much to their dismay backing the herd is a growing army of donkeys bringing up the rear, ready to finish off what the herd of elephants didn’t trample.

[XEHRpa]

> WHAT THE FREAK was he waiting for??????

I’ve claimed for over a month that this was Mac’s exercise of “operational tempo.”

First, Obama risks turning people off from overexposure, and that’s one good reason to wait until the end.

Second, If you throw facts at the opponent too early, it gives the opposition campaign time to fabricate an alternate “interpretation” of the facts, so as to assuage the fence sitters. Mac didn’t want to shoot until he saw the whites of their eyes.

Third, financial realities. If Mac wants to compete ad for ad, and comparing the $600M take of O vs the $80+M financing of Mac, it is clear that Mac can only spend at the Obama rate for a brief period, which is necessarily at the end of the campaign.

He was dealt is poor hand, but has maximized his effect, nonetheless.