Posted on 09/16/2008 9:05:57 AM PDT by kingattax
Bad news for Barack Obama.
The contest between Barack Obama and John McCain in New Jersey is too close to call, with a new Quinnipiac University poll showing the battle for the state's fifteen electoral votes at 48%-45% among likely voters. Obama led McCain by ten percentage points, 51%-41% in an August Quinnipiac poll
This is the fourth independent poll within the last week to show New Jersey as an emerging battleground state in the presidential campaign. A Monmouth University/New Jersey poll released this morning shows Obama leading by 8 points, and a Marist College poll released Friday night had identical numbers to Quinnipiac, 48%-45%. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll from last week had Obama up by six points.
“The McCain-Palin ticket has narrowed the gap dramatically, but it will take more than this post convention bounce for the Republicans to win in true blue New Jersey. The upcoming debates probably will provide a clue to whether Sen. McCain can build on his current momentum, or whether the tide will turn back to the Democrats,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
New Jersey has been a state that Democrats could consistently look to as being in the bag for them. With McCain gaining so quickly, Obama will now be forced to allocate both time and money to securing it. Polls also show that McCain has pulled within 5 points in neighboring New York.
This has to be troubling to the Obama campaign, who no doubt have good reason to be worried.
Get Sarah and Todd into New Jersey THIS week! She’s a lightning rod.
Stand by for MASSIVE vote fraud across the country in this election. Turnout will exceed 100 percent. We need the ‘Blue Finger’ method.
She always promises, but never delivers. McCain should spend his money elsewhere. I have resigned myself to the fact that my vote will never matter in a Presidential Election until the day I get out of this Socialist Paradise.
(Counting the days...)
BTW, did anybody know that we have a Senatorial Election in New Jersey this fall? I know I didn't. The Democrats are running Senator Lautenburg, who is, technically speaking, dead. I honestly have no idea who the Republicans are running, and we're only nine weeks away from voting.
Pathetic!
Of course, the 'Pubbie could be lying low, not hitting Lautenberg hard until after the ballots have been locked and it is too late to pull a Torricelli Switch.
Four cities:
Camden
Trenton
Newark
Atlantic city
There’s no way NJ will EVER vote Republican. These welfare cities make up NJ voters blocks that just won’t be overcome by the smaller townships.
REMEMBER: with voter fraud in the battleground states - mccain/palin must be up at least 1-2 points ABOVE the margin of error to carry the state.
Agree 100%
as i have posted in other forums...
McCain/Palin: Please don’t waste your time and money in NJ.
Absolutely! We have lots of hockey moms and even more football moms.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Everything is in play, thanks to Sarah and the resurrection of conservatism in this election. Show Obama the exit door. Amateur hour is over, thank goodness.
The NJ GOP candidate is Dick Zimmer.
The six towns of Toms River, Hamilton, Gloucester, Middletown, Brick and Old Bridge have about the same population.
The real problem for the GOP in NJ is not the 15% black population.
It is the large number of liberals in the 75% of the population that is white.
That white population is almost evenly split between socially conservative/fiscally quasi-liberal Catholics and socially quasi-liberal/fiscally conservative Protestants.
There is a reason why almost every successful NJ Republican is a pro-abort - that stance cements the country-club mainline Protestant base of the NJ GOP.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/il/08-il-pres-ge-mvo.php
The above poll has not been updated since the wave of Gov Palin came on strong. Barry may well be below 50% in Illinois, but no one is noticing.
If the Indies and disenchanted DEMS are switching sides and since both King Richard of Chicago and Gov Blow-Dry-o-Vich have been relatively kind to Gov Palin, I think Illinois could surprise people.
No, not really. Kerry only won NJ 53-46%, by about 230K votes. In 2000 Gore carried it 56-41%, by nearly 500K votes.
Compare that to the 2004 results of New York (+1.3 million vote differential) or RI/MA (60% and 62%, respectively) if you want to see true blue. :)
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Every white family I interact with in NJ generally follows this pattern:
Husband: ranges from a mild Republican who may vote Democrat in local races to a broken-glass Republican.
Wife: ranges from a mild Democrat who generally votes Democrat in local races but might from time to time vote for a Republican she likes to a moonbat Democrat.
These women are the ones who held Clinton's pantsuit jacket while she delivered Obama a 10-point thrashing in the primary.
That group is fluid and Palin intrigues them.
They want to like her.
McCain and Palin CAN win in New Jersey.
But the New Jersey State Republican Party is run by a bunch of clueless RINOs who prefer to pander to Democrats.
You can be SURE Tom Kean and his gang of Limousine Rockefeller Libs aren’t supporting McCain/Palin. If McCain and Palin do win New Jersey, it will be in SPITE of the State Republican leadership - not because of it.
But whenever NJ produces a good pro-life GOP candidate for state office, he is strangled in his cradle by the countryclubbers in the county GOP organizations - a la Brett Schundler.
I would also stop by CT with Rudy and Lieberman on the way up to NH (4 EVs) and Maine (to try and snag 1 of their EV's) in case McCain loses NM and NV.
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