Hurricane Ike Live Thread IV

NOAA/NHC ^ | 14 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

The eyewall of Hurricane Ike crossed Galveston Island in the early hours of Saturday morning. Reports indicate as many as 20,000 residents of Galveston Island chose not to evacuate as storm surge engulfed the island. The Freeport Chief of Police reported as many as 2000 residents did not evacuate as flood waters swamped coastal communities. There are widespread reports of power outages and coastal flooding throughout the Texas/Louisiana region. The U.S. Coast Guard received hundreds of calls Friday afternoon to rescue people stranded by flood waters along the barrier islands and Galveston Bay communities.

Multiple fires broke out in the Greater Houston area fueled by strong winds. Fire fighting efforts were hampered by flood waters. Brennan's Restaurant, a landmark in Houston, burned to the ground. A 584-foot freighter crippled in the Gulf of Mexico and its crew of 22 survived the storm after The U.S. Coast Guard was forced to abort rescue efforts Friday afternoon due to foul weather

Gulf Coast wholesale gasoline prices jumped to nearly $5 a gallon over fears that water and wind damage could keep the facilities closed for days or longer. Oil companies had shut down 97.5 percent of production in the Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning and were battening down refineries and petrochemical plants in an area that accounts for one-fifth of U.S. refining capacity.

Exxon Mobil reported evacuating workers from its Gulf Coast offshore platforms and onshore facilities in the anticipated path of Ike, shutting down daily production of about 36,000 barrels of oil and 270 million cubic feet of gas..

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread III
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)

[CindyDawg]

They tell us to have an empty trash can. Never knew what for before. I just store charcoal bags in mine.

[jeffers]

Freeport is not on a barrier island, but is a map point of reference for many who might not know where Surfside is.

I expect to see barrier island breaching and structural damage, consistent with post storm imagery from Bolivar Peninsula, extending from Surf City, Texas, to the coastline near Lake Charles, Louisiana.

All those islands, (and probably intervening low coastline not protected by barrier islands), with the exception of downtown Galveston and High Island, are similar heigth ASL, similar geological structure, and all were subject to similar surge and wind levels.

The post storm imagery of Bolivar Peninsula represents the most likely current state of most or all of the above referenced coastline. No guarantees, but that is currently the most rational projection, in my opinion.

[proudofthesouth]

I’m glad to see you posted texasredtop. I’ve been wondering how you and your husband fared.

I guess you were right about staying put after all.....

[NautiNurse]

Call them and tell them you are bringing a signed form releasing the incorporated local, state, and federal bureaucrats from responsibility for your safety and health. They might go for it.

[soozer47]

AGREED!

[CindyDawg]

Probably easier just to get a press ID :’)

[El Gato]

The Eakers are OK...talked briefly with them yesterday.

Glad to hear it. Been checking to see if either they or Humble has been posting. Nothing yet. Humble's probably out chasing down goats or the midget. I also suspect that the cells are out in his area along with his DSL line. (or cable, but IIRC, he uses DSL)

[mylife]

How did you fare Gato?

[NautiNurse]

LOL! Ain’t that the truth.

[texasredtop]

I haven’t but I’m assuming LaPorte came back up at 12:30 AM when we did. Check the city website, maybe they have some info up there. We heard that Shady River (Shoreacres) has bad flooding but it usually does. I’m betting you’re good to go. There were some downed power lines on Spencer yesterday so you might want to go in from Fairmont if you can. They’re probably all fixed by now though. I may take a drive that way in a bit and see if Walmart is open and can look down Spencer then. They had it shut off yesterday from Luella to right in front of Walmart. I’ll let you know.

[Enosh]

“Texas Task Force 1 is currently searching Galveston homes and structures. The teams will move across the island east to west. Search activities should be complete in the next 72 hours.”

[Allegra]

Hope you rest easier today, Allegra, and pray that all your loved ones are safe.

So tough to worry long distance.

Thank you for prayers and understanding and thank you for getting it. :)

Some of these people who want to talk down just have no idea.

I was alive in 1983 and remember the aftermath of Alicia all too well, not to mention the storm itself. It took three weeks for some to get their power back.

If there is anyone on here who is offended by my trying to locate dear friends, tough s*** for them.

[DrewsMum]

I think he was referring to the rain...

[AFPhys]

I apologize. I did not mean to sound condescending, and I know you are not stupid. I know all the rest you wrote, too. It was meant as a gentle reminder for you since you sounded so concerned. Sometimes writing here is not a very good medium for expression.

I hope you caught the post up thread that humblegunner has been heard from and is OK.

Again, I humbly apologize for my clumsy post to you.

[jeffers]

The comparatively tight rotation of Ike needs time to spread out and reinforce the wider pattern low pressure circulation system. That has been happening since we first noted interaction between Ike and the trough yesterday, and is not yet complete.

The center of circulation of both systems is now coincident or nearly coincident, but Ike’s tight rotation is still “disrupting” the wider, cold front-warm front circulation.

When the wider circulation pattern stabilizes, conditions will be ripe for explosive low level convection, less favorable for mid-level convection, and explosive jetstream support.

Varying from place to place, boundary layer heating MAY obviate less supportive conditions at the mid levels, setting the stage for long lived, severe supercell development with full vertical support.

Sun on the ground now, and through the early afternoon, for any given place now east of the cold front, will tell the tale, BUT low level short lived severe convection is possible anywhere ahead of the front, sunshine today or not.

[texasredtop]

Thanks! You never know though. That’s why we try to never say never.

[DollyCali]

thanks for posting the pix .. the gorgeous sunset...

[DollyCali]

wow.. so much news going on everywhere, I had not heard about the Chicago rain. Need to check with my several friends in the area..

[NautiNurse]

Post # 1774 aerial views of Bolivar. Tragic.

[buffyt]

We know about gas being out. But we are in Austin and bought heavy metal gas tanks and will take gas back with us for the generator. Already bought the generator last week, it is at the house. Bought a window unit AC here in Austin. We are going to get the whole house system that switches on any time elec. goes off. Will have a professional install it. Saw one in Austin that was only two thousand bucks. Would be worth it. Our power was off the other day for over four hours and there was no storm. Just a transformer blew.