Gallup:Battle for Congress Suddenly Looks Competitive (GOP "could regain control of U.S. House ...")

Gallup ^ | September 12, 2008 | by Lydia Saad

[11th_VA]

PRINCETON, NJ -- A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

(snip)

The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup's "likely voter" model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.

If these numbers are sustained through Election Day -- a big if -- Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

[iowamark]

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The Palin Effect

[billhilly]

“Many races did not field good candidates.”

Which ones?

[impeachedrapist]

Took Gallup long enough. It was obvious by their earlier poll that this is not an anti-GOP year. It’s an anti-incumbent year. And there are a lot of vulnerable Dem freshmen.

[Red Steel]

The Palin Effect.

[longtermmemmory]

more like comming home after a drunken binge.

[Dr. Sivana]

We want the conservative style that Palin brings, and McCain is running on.

Yes! We should have learned that in 1980 when the "upsets" were conservatives like Steve Symms, who beat power-broker Frank Church in Idaho. McGovern and Birch Bayh also went down in flames.

I cried no tears for the defeat of Lincoln Chaffee. It was painful, like excising a cancerous tumor, but well worth doing.

[Sudetenland]

To paraphrase Queen:

Duh, Duh, Dum, Dum, Dum, another Dem bites the dust.

[babaloo]

Hilarious! Thanks for the laugh.

[impeachedrapist]

We won’t win back the house this time around.

Only took three posts for a naysayer. Then again, that's 1-2 posts longer than I expected.

There are a LOT of freshmen Dems in conservative leaning districts. Dismiss the macro trends all you like. They will be a factor. I don't know if the GOP will regain the House, but I know it can. Especially if people like you put less effort into pooh-poohing Pubbie chances and more effort into making it happen.

[longtermmemmory]

Now we need to bring pelosi to the the public.

contrast SOCIALIST Caucus Pelosi with Palin.

Dear Mr. and Mrs. America, do you really want Pelosi THIRD IN LINE?

[impeachedrapist]

Nope, sorry. You weren’t first. :-)

[impeachedrapist]

Agreed, I’d be happy if the GOP broken even in Senate races. I’m more optimistic about the House.

[Dr. Sivana]

Which ones?

For the House, way too many to list.

For the Senate, someone mentioned a former Republican seat in Arkansas in which the Dem is running unopposed. Durbin in Illinois could only draw a RINO physician.

Oberweis (Hastert's old house seat) is a perennial losing candidate (owns a dairy business. Conservative, but has almost become a joke, running for gov., senate and now rep. Also gaffe prone.)

[bilhosty]

When you’r up you are up and when you’r down you are down.But, when you are up for to long the market sets you down, and then you are down and then the other guys are up.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Many of the ones we held before the ‘06 elections. Most of the prior incumbents are not running again. Indeed, of the roughly 30 seats we lost, there is only 1 (Jeb Bradley in NH) that has a substantial chance of reclaiming his seat. Only about 3 others we have better than a 50% chance of getting back. We’re at risk for losing about 31 more House seats this year, many of them retirees and some incumbents. The Dems are awash with cash, we’re not. Most GOP challengers for competitive seats will need between $1-$2 million a piece. Many of them now have only a few hundred grand, some not even that. Take a look at where we’re at in the money game per race. We’re at a dreadful disadvantage...

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/index.php

[Dr. Sivana]

I don't know if the GOP will regain the House, but I know it can. Especially if people like you put less effort into pooh-poohing Pubbie chances and more effort into making it happen.

Sorry, I'm kinda old to be a cheerleader. I contribute to good candidates, and I have done ground work. I even ran for state rep in a bad year ('96) and got more votes than Dole.

I'm optimistic that McCain/Palin will win by a significant margin, and that the Republicans might gain seats in the house. That is MUCH better than the way it looked earlier. I'm a St. Louis Rams fan, but I am not predicting a Super Bowl win for them, either.

[Finalapproach29er]

Democrats won’t work with McCain.

Republicans should nationalize the election and promise to work with Mccain on 3-4 reforms.

Make it a package deal; divided government doesn’t work when the other party is extreme.

my two cents

[impeachedrapist]

Yeah, I'm a "cheerleader" by saying the GOP COULD win. [stifling a yawn]

Well, I'd rather be a cheerleader than the one pissing in the Wheaties each morning.

[Thermalseeker]

It must be hammered home that Obama has voted 97% of the time with this do-nothing/no-drill incompetent Congress.

The lines at the gas stations I saw yesterday in Chattanooga and the gas shortages that are being reported throughout the SE USA should do quite well hammering home the notion that the DemocRats "no drill" policy is a no-go.....

[billhilly]

“For the House, way too many to list.”

Oh, come on. There is plenty of room here to list them all. Clue us in.